US attacks against IRGC targets inside Iran are still ongoing, reports Al Jazeera citing a US official

The established sequence is an initial bid for crude, gold, the dollar and front-end rates volatility, with the durability of that move hinging on whether Tehran's response is telegraphed and symbolic, as calibrated face-saving responses have been in prior rounds, or aimed at US assets, regional energy infrastructure or shipping. The concrete transmission channels are the prompt crude time spread and tanker rates and insurance premia through the Strait of Hormuz, since a large share of seaborne oil transits that chokepoint, plus Gulf state assets and the usual haven crosses. Reporting attributed to a single US official via regional media is worth treating as provisional until confirmed on the record by US defence channels. The follow-ons that matter are any official confirmation of scope and targets, Iran's rhetoric from senior leadership, and signs of back-channel contacts of the kind that have historically capped escalation cycles.