US CENTCOM confirms attacks against the IRGC at 12:00EDT/17:00BST

The established sequence in episodes of this kind runs: an immediate bid for crude, gold and the dollar, a gap lower in equity futures, and then a sorting between limited retaliation scenarios, where the move retraces within sessions, and cases where the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf energy infrastructure enters the picture, where the risk premium in oil persists. The operative distinction is whether strikes are one-off and telegraphed or the opening of a sustained campaign; confirmation language from CENTCOM of the kind used here has historically accompanied discrete, pre-briefed operations as often as open-ended ones. The variables that have mattered next are the Iranian response channel, direct versus proxy, the treatment of shipping and insurance rates in the Gulf, and any Iraqi or Gulf state entanglement. Watch for follow-on statements from Tehran and for whether tanker traffic or regional airspace restrictions begin to move, since freight and war-risk premia have tended to be the cleanest tell on perceived supply risk rather than the headline crude print itself.