US Central Command Commander Cooper says US military successfully cleared sea mines laid in Strait of Hormuz and international shipping lanes are open

• Iran has not exported a single barrel of oil since the start of the naval blockade.

Hormuz clearance announcements have a familiar pattern in past Gulf escalation episodes: the reopening of the lane is the headline, but the market variable has tended to be the rate at which tanker traffic, freight rates and war-risk insurance premia actually normalise, which has historically lagged official declarations by days to weeks. The accompanying claim that Iranian exports have been zero since the blockade began is the more market-relevant assertion, since a prolonged full shut-in of one of the larger Gulf producers is a very different supply picture from harassment and delay, and the credibility of that figure will be tested against tanker-tracking data and any change in Iranian rhetoric. Actors matter here: Central Command statements of this kind have typically preceded convoy arrangements and coalition escort operations rather than an immediate return to normal commercial transits. The usual sequence in comparable episodes has been an initial easing in prompt crude spreads and shipping costs, followed by re-pricing on the first sign of renewed mining, drone activity or a failed transit. Worth watching are insurance and freight quotes on Gulf loadings, Iranian official response, and whether the blockade itself is lifted or merely the mines cleared, since those are distinct states with different implications for the export shut-in claim.