US Continuing Jobless Claims (Aug/08) 1799.0K vs. Exp. 1790K (Prev. 1781.0K)

US Continuing Jobless Claims (Aug/08) 1799.0K vs. Exp. 1790K (Prev. 1781.0K)

Continuing claims have re-established themselves as the cleaner read on labour slack in this cycle, precisely because initial claims have been distorted at times by seasonal adjustment and administrative quirks while the continuing series captures how long the unemployed are actually staying out of work. A miss on expectations combined with an upward revision to the prior week is the combination that has historically carried more weight than either alone: it points to a trend in hiring softness rather than noise in separations, the distinction being that layoffs show up in initial claims while the failure to rehire shows up here. The transmission runs through the front end via rate expectations and, at the margin, through the dollar and duration as the labour leg of the dual mandate gains salience. Prints of this size are typically incremental rather than decisive; the releases that have repriced the path are the payrolls report and the unemployment rate, with claims data serving as the higher-frequency corroboration between them. Worth noting is whether subsequent weeks confirm the grind higher, since persistent elevation in continuing claims has in past episodes preceded a rising unemployment rate with a lag rather than coincided with it.