US CPI (Jul MM) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. -0.4%)

An in-line headline print of this kind rarely re-prices the curve on its own; the established pattern is that the front end moves on the surprise relative to consensus, and there is none here. The more material feature is the swing from the prior month's negative reading, which flips the direction of the year-on-year base effect and removes a deflationary data point the dovish side of the committee had been able to lean on. On past occasions when a soft print has been followed by normalisation, the decomposition has mattered more than the level: whether the bounce sits in energy and other mean-reverting components, or in core services and shelter, determines whether officials treat it as noise or as confirmation that disinflation has stalled. The peer set for the day is the core measure, the supercore detail, and the unrounded figures, since small rounding differences have historically driven the initial rates reaction when the headline matches expectations. Follow-ons are the producer price release and any scheduled Fed commentary, which in comparable episodes have set the tone for how the print is absorbed into the policy debate rather than the print itself.