US Daily Equity Opening News - INTC plunges on weak outlook, cash flows; SNDK slips on cash flow concerns; NVDA may guarantee billions for NSCL data centre funding; AMZN slides on AI spending concerns; SBUX slips as revenue, international sales disappoint
Newsquawk Staff ·
DAY AHEAD
- EVENTS: EU-Canada summit continues.
- DATA: In Europe, flash Q3 Eurozone GDP is expected to rise 0.2% Q/Q (prev. 0.6%), and the annual rate by 1.1% Y/Y (prev. 1.2%); unemployment is seen unchanged at 6.4%. Regional CPI metrics are expected from Germany (exp. 0.1% M/M, prev. 0.6%) with the annual rate easing to 3.0% Y/Y (prev. 3.3%), while HICP is seen rising 0.1% M/M (prev. 0.6%) and easing to 3.1% Y/Y (prev. 3.3%). In North America, US Q3 employment cost index (exp. 0.8% Q/Q, prev. 0.9%), with wages (exp. 0.8% Q/Q, prev. 0.9%); Chicago PMI (prev. 58.8) is also due. In Canada, August GDP is seen rising 0.2% M/M (prev. 0.0%).
- CENTRAL BANKS: Fed's Hammack (voter) and Cook (voter) will give remarks to explain their hawkish FOMC dissents this week; Fed's Musalem (2028 voter) speaks at the Shadow Open Market Committee, and Fed's Daly (2027 voter) gives opening remarks at a San Fran Fed conference. ECB chief economist Lane speaks on AI and the economy; the ECB will also publish its Survey of Professional Forecasters and Survey of Monetary Analysts. The BoE Decision Maker Panel and Agents' summary of business conditions will be released. In Turkey, the CBRT minutes are due.
- CRA: Morningstar DBRS potentially reviews Spain (A high).
- ENERGY: Baker Hughes reports weekly rig counts (prev. oil 460, gas 132, total 603).
- EARNINGS: Notable earnings due today include: ExxonMobil (XOM), AbbVie (ABBV), Chevron (CVX), General Dynamics (GD), Regeneron (REGN), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), Dominion Energy (D), Exelon (EXC), Kenvue (KVUE), Cboe (CBOE).
MACRO
- BoJ - The BoJ held its policy rate at 1.25%, as expected, in an 8–1 vote; Hajime Takata, a known hawk, dissented in favour of a rate hike. It indicated underlying inflation had reached its 2% target for the first time, reinforcing expectations of another rate increase in December. The BoJ also raised its next-fiscal-year inflation forecast to 2.6% (from 2.4%) and unexpectedly announced plans to nearly triple annual ETF sales to JPY 860bln from January. At his post-meeting press conference, Governor Ueda said the BoJ will continue raising rates and adjusting easing in line with economic, price and financial developments, though it cannot commit to hikes at fixed intervals. He said the policy rate remains below neutral, and risks will be assessed at every meeting, including at the December confab. Ueda said members agreed underlying inflation has reached 2%, but it is too early to declare the target achieved, and medium- to long-term expectations are not firmly anchored. He said the boJ will closely watch the Spring wage talks.
- SNB - The SNB reported a nine-month profit of CHF 44.2bln; gains included CHF 43.3bln from FX assets, CHF 1.2bln from gold, and CHF 0.1bln from Swiss-franc positions. The result increased the likelihood of a year-end payout to the Swiss government. NOTE: SNB results do not influence monetary policy.
- ECB - ECB's Moulin said the central bank is taking a measured approach to inflation, as most prices remain stable and pressures are largely imported. ECB's Simkus said holding interest rates does not rule out further hikes; he noted that the likelihood of spillover effects from higher energy prices has increased, although the ECB has yet to observe second-round effects.
- French Growth - France’s GDP unexpectedly contracted 0.1% Q/Q in Q3 (exp. +0.1%). Exports fell 1.7%, investment declined and household spending rose 0.2%. Rising borrowing costs, political uncertainty and protests are weighing on the economy, while stagnation in Q4 would leave FY 2026 growth at just 0.2%, Bloomberg notes.
- Chinese Yuan - JPMorgan Asset Management expects the yuan to appreciate at least 10% over the long-term in real effective terms, as China expands its international use. The bank favours yuan-denominated credit, citing currency appreciation and higher yields.
GEOPOLITICS
- Iran-Qatar - Qatari mediators returned to Tehran on Friday as part of efforts to reach a US-Iran deal, with mediation talks coordinated with the US, according to Reuters.
- President Trump Campaigning - US President Donald Trump cancelled planned campaign rallies in Kansas and Iowa, switching to nearly 20 tele-rallies ahead of the midterm elections, Bloomberg reports. Trump said the Kansas event was cancelled because Senator Roger Marshall was performing well, dismissing concerns about his health.
TECH
- Apple (AAPL), Foxconn (HNHPF) - Apple supplier Foxconn is confident its network of over 240 sites across 24 countries can meet surging demand for the USD 2K iPhone Duo, Bloomberg reports. Initial stocks sold out rapidly, with some deliveries delayed until late January.
- Intel (INTC) - Intel shares plunged by almost 23% in extended trading after weaker than expected revenue, free cash flow, and profit guidance, driven by prolonged PC market weakness, memory shortages and disruption at its Israeli factory, overshadowed stronger quarterly earnings and robust data centre demand. Q3 adj. EPS 0.52 (exp. 0.41), Q3 revenue USD 16.5bln (exp. 16.6bln). Adj. gross margin 44.1% (exp. 42.1%), adj. operating margin 19.6% (exp. 16.5%), adj. free cash flow USD 1.64bln (exp. 2.98bln). Client Computing revenue USD 8.10bln (exp. 8.82bln), Data Centre & AI revenue USD 7.32bln (exp. 6.67bln) and Intel Foundry revenue USD 6.70bln (exp. 6.12bln). CEO Lip-Bu Tan highlighted robust Xeon demand but acknowledged supply constraints, while management expects the PC market slowdown to persist through at least H1 2027 amid memory shortages. CFO Dave Zinsner said October's Kiryat Gat fab explosion and two-week shutdown would reduce Q4 revenue by approximately USD 300mln and gross margin by around 200bps, with a similar revenue impact expected in Q1 and further risks under assessment. Sees Q4 adj. EPS 0.25 (exp. 0.44), sees Q4 revenue between USD 15-16bln (exp. 17.1bln) and sees Q4 adj. gross margin 38%. Maintains FY26 capex outlook of approximately USD 20bln, with spending expected to increase significantly in 2027, and no positive free cash flow anticipated.
- SanDisk (SNDK) - SanDisk shares edged lower in extended US trading as weaker than expected operating cash flow and investor concerns over the sustainability of AI spending outweighed strong quarterly earnings, upbeat guidance and a stock split announcement. Q1 adj. EPS 49.51 (exp. 46.20), Q1 revenue USD 11.031bln (exp. 10.639bln). Q1 adj. net income USD 7.624bln (exp. 7.144bln), adj. operating income USD 8.871bln (exp. 8.44bln), operating cash flow USD 6.4bln (exp. 6.7bln). CEO highlighted robust and growing demand for flash storage products, particularly in the data centre business, supported by AI infrastructure investment and disciplined financial management; noted strong customer demand signals extending beyond FY30 and reiterated its focus on generating durable free cash flow. Sees Q2 adj. EPS between 55.00-57.00 (exp. 53.60), sees Q2 revenue between USD 12.2-12.6bln (exp. 12.3bln), sees Q2 gross margin between 84.5-85.5%. Announced an eight-for-one forward stock split; shares will be distributed after market close on 19th November, with split-adjusted trading beginning on 20th November.
- Nscale (NSCL), Nvidia (NVDA) - Nvidia is in talks to provide credit guarantees for an Nscale data centre facility that Anthropic (ANT) plans to use in West Virginia, equipped with Nvidia chips, according to The Information. The guarantees could amount to billions of dollars.
- Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) - Q3 adj. EPS 8.19 (exp. 7.75), Q3 revenue USD 1.2bln (exp. 1.16bln). Announced an additional USD 500mln share repurchase authorisation, bringing the total remaining buyback capacity to USD 1bln. Sees Q4 revenue between USD 1.32-1.38bln (exp. 1.22bln), sees Q4 operating expenses between USD 216.8-220.8mln, sees Q4 gross margin between 44.5-56.1%. Separately, appointed Tony Balow as CFO and Robert Dean as Chief Accounting Officer, effective immediately.
- DXC Technology (DXC) - Shares fell over 12% in extended trading on weaker guidance, alongside management's warning of a prolonged recovery in its core business. Q2 adj. EPS 0.67 (exp. 0.55), Q2 revenue USD 3.03bln (exp. 3bln). Management cautioned that recovery in core revenue will take time but remains confident in its positioning to support enterprise AI adoption at scale. Sees Q3 adj. EPS 0.55 (exp. 0.79), sees Q3 revenue USD 2.98bln (exp. 3.08bln). Sees FY27 adj. EPS between 2.25-2.50 (exp. 2.56), sees FY27 revenue between USD 11.91-11.98bln (exp. 12.15bln).
- First Solar (FSLR) - Q3 EPS 5.30 (exp. 4.64), Q3 revenue USD 1.23bln (exp. 1.29bln). Announced a new USD 500mln share repurchase programme. CEO Mark Widmar highlighted the structural changes to US solar manufacturing under Section 232 trade measures, noting that First Solar's vertically integrated manufacturing platform and independence from Chinese crystalline silicon supply chains position the company to benefit. Lowered FY26 revenue outlook, sees FY26 revenue between USD 4.6-4.9bln (exp. 5.03bln; prev. saw 4.9-5.2bln), and sees FY26 volume sold between 16.0-17.0GW (prev. saw 17.0-18.2GW). Separately, announced a non-exclusive patent licensing agreement with CubicPV, providing access to US patents covering perovskite solar technology.
- Twilio (TWLO) - Shares slid over 16% in extended trading as the lower end of its Q4 earnings guidance fell short of analyst expectations. Q3 EPS 1.65 (exp. 1.47), Q3 revenue USD 1.56bln (exp. 1.51bln). Sees Q4 EPS between 1.48-1.53 (exp. 1.48) and sees Q4 revenue between USD 1.595-1.605bln (exp. 1.58bln).
- GoDaddy (GDDY) - Q3 EPS 2.08 (exp. 1.90), Q3 revenue USD 1.34bln (exp. 1.33bln). Airo surpassed USD 100mln in annualised bookings run rate and began contributing incrementally to bookings growth. Sees FY26 revenue between USD 5.215-5.255bln (exp. 5.24bln), with management now expecting results towards the higher end of the range.
- Strategy (MSTR) - Shares fell 4% in extended trading after it announced a CFO transition and reported Q3 revenue below estimates. Q3 EPS USD 44.75 (exp. 22.89), Q3 revenue USD 125.4mln (exp. 129.0mln); Q3 operating income USD 21bln, its largest ever; Q3 net income of USD 19.5bln, following a USD 21bln unrealised gain on Bitcoin holdings.. CFO Andrew Kang will step down effective 5th November; Phong Le will serve as principal financial officer during the transition, before Reza Virasteh becomes CFO from 1st January. Elsewhere, Strategy will begin paying daily dividends on its STRC preferred shares from 1st November to revive investor demand; the securities offer a 12% annual yield.
COMMUNICATIONS
- Roblox (RBLX) - Roblox shares tumbled by over 16% in extended US Trading after weaker than expected revenue, disappointing Q4 bookings guidance, and declining user engagement following stricter child-safety measures. Q3 EPS -0.32 (exp. -0.38), Q3 revenue USD 1.60bln (exp. 1.63bln). Bookings -12% Y/Y to USD 1.697bln (exp. 1.62bln), daily active users (DAUs) -9% Y/Y to 138mln (exp. 145.8mln), with 34bln hours engaged. User engagement declined following the implementation of enhanced child safety measures, including age verification. CFO Naveen Chopra warned that the November release of Grand Theft Auto VI could create a modest headwind for user activity. Sees Q4 bookings between USD 1.89-2bln (exp. 2.02bln) and sees Q4 adj. EBITDA between USD -70 and -10mln. Management continues to withhold FY26 guidance amid increased uncertainty surrounding user engagement and infrastructure costs.
- Pinterest (PINS) - Pinterest shares fell over 7% in extended trading following an earnings and revenue miss. Q3 adj. EPS 0.46 (exp. 0.49), Q3 revenue USD 1.174bln (exp. 1.21bln). Q3 net income USD 22mln, adj. EBITDA USD 339mln (exp. 348mln), adj. EBITDA margin 29%, and FCF USD 300mln. Global monthly active users +10% Y/Y to a record 661mln, with global average revenue per user +1% Y/Y to 1.80. US and Canada revenue +14% Y/Y to USD 894mln, Europe revenue flat Y/Y at USD 193mln and Rest of World revenue +24% Y/Y to USD 87mln. Sees Q4 revenue between USD 1.425-1.475bln (exp. 1.52bln), representing growth of 8-12% Y/Y, and sees Q4 adj. EBITDA between USD 538-588mln (exp. 604.8mln).
- Reddit (RDDT) - Reddit shares plunged over 18% in afterhours following weaker than expected revenue and earnings guidance, alongside accelerating declines in search referral traffic and concerns over falling user activity. Q3 EPS 1.40 (exp. 1.33), Q3 revenue USD 895mln (exp. 878.4mln). Revenue over the trailing 12 months surpassed USD 3bln, with daily active unique users (DAUQs) at approximately 130mln. Management flagged a meaningful decline in search referral traffic during Q3, accelerating towards quarter-end and continuing into Q4. October search referrals declined by more than 1mln/week on average, primarily impacting logged-out and web traffic. Management warned that if current trends persist, total DAUQs could decline by a low double-digit percentage in Q4. Sees Q4 revenue between USD 1.0-1.03bln (exp. 1.05bln), and sees Q4 adj. EBITDA between USD 480-510mln (exp. 512.2mln).
- Universal Music Group NV (UNVGY) - Q3 adj. EBITDA EUR 729mln (exp. 697.2mln), Q3 revenue EUR 3.39bln (exp. 3.38bln). Recorded Music subscription revenue +19.2% Y/Y at CER to EUR 1.42bln (+9.5% excluding Downtown), supported by wholesale price increases and subscriber growth. Ad-supported streaming revenue +4.7% excluding Downtown, while physical revenue +17.4%, driven by broad-based demand across North America, Japan and Europe.
CONSUMER CYCLICAL
- Amazon (AMZN) - Amazon shares fell 7% in extended trade after higher than expected AI infrastructure spending, deteriorating free cash flow and slowing e-commerce and advertising growth overshadowed accelerating AWS revenue, which nevertheless fell short of heightened investor expectations. Q3 EPS 1.89 (exp. 1.97), Q3 revenue USD 201.9bln (exp. 202.2bln). Net income USD 20.7bln (exp. 21.5bln), operating income USD 28.08bln (exp. 26.06bln), operating margin 13.9% (exp. 12.9%). AWS revenue +39% Y/Y ex-FX to USD 45.98bln (exp. 45.68bln), AWS operating income USD 17.8bln, with AWS backlog reaching USD 578bln. North America sales USD 112.85bln (exp. 113bln), physical stores revenue USD 5.71bln (exp. 5.77bln). Online sales +2% Y/Y to USD 68.5bln; advertising revenue +11% Y/Y (vs 26% Y/Y in Q2), partly due to Prime Day moving from July to June. Q3 property and equipment spending, which traders see as a gauge for AI infrastructure spending, exceeded USD 77bln (vs USD 54.2bln in Q2), with trailing 12-month free cash seeing an outflow of USD 42.4bln. CEO Jassy highlighted accelerating AWS demand, with growth exceeding 39% and expectations for growth above 40% in both 2027 and 2028, supported by AI infrastructure investment. Sees Q4 revenue between USD 240-247bln (exp. 244.2bln), sees Q4 operating income between USD 28.5-33.5bln (exp. 33.2bln). Maintains FY26 cash capex outlook of approximately USD 220bln, with spending expected to rise meaningfully in 2027.
- Starbucks (SBUX) - Starbucks shares edged lower as weaker-than-expected revenue, disappointing international comparable sales, and expectations of slowing North American sales growth outweighed stronger quarterly earnings and robust US sales performance. Q4 adj. EPS 0.80 (exp. 0.72), Q4 revenue USD 9.10bln (exp. 9.22bln). Adj. operating margin 14% (exp. 12.7%), global comparable sales +7.2% (exp. +6.23%), driven by average ticket growth of 5.2% and comparable transactions +1.8%. US comparable sales +7.7% (exp. +6.51%), international comparable sales +0.9% (exp. +3.36%). Management said it is ahead of schedule on its FY28 financial framework and expects further operating margin improvement in FY27. Sees FY27 adj. EPS between 3.15-3.25 (exp. 3.16), sees FY27 consolidated revenue declining approximately 1% Y/Y, primarily reflecting the transition of China retail operations to a licensed JV model. Sees FY27 North America comparable sales growth of approximately 4%, capex at approximately 5% of revenue, 90-100 net new North American stores and 2,000 North American store remodels, with approximately half of international store openings expected in China.
- McDonald's (MCD) - McDonald’s is testing two-item value bundles priced at USD 3.50-4.00 at selected US locations to attract budget-conscious customers. The initiative follows disappointing performance from previous promotions and Q2 US same-store sales growth of just 0.8%, the weakest since early 2025.
- Volkswagen (VWAGY) - Volkswagen’s Audi supervisory board is scheduled to hold an extraordinary meeting on Friday afternoon to discuss a planned US factory and the circumstances surrounding CEO Dollner’s recent appearance with US President Trump, DPA reports citing sources.
- Rivian (RIVN) - Rivian shares rallied by over 8% in extended trading after reporting a smaller than expected quarterly loss, driven by robust demand for its new R2 SUV, alongside an upgraded FY vehicle delivery outlook. Q3 adj. EPS -0.48 (exp. -0.65), Q3 revenue USD 2.155bln (exp. 2bln). Revenue was supported by strong initial demand for the R2 SUV, which became Rivian's best-selling vehicle by volume in its first full quarter on the market. Raised the lower end of FY26 vehicle delivery outlook; now sees FY26 vehicle deliveries between 67,000-70,000, and sees FY26 adj. EBITDA between USD -1.85 and -1.75bln. Separately, appointed Derek Mulvey as interim CFO, effective 30th October, following the departure of Claire McDonough.
- Puma (PUMSY) - Q3 adj. sales EUR 1.78bln (exp. 1.76bln). Q3 gross profit margin 49.5% (prev. 45.4%). Sales declined due to ongoing reset measures and weaker consumer demand. Narrows FY26 EBIT guidance range and lowers FY26 capex outlook, sees FY26 capex below EUR 150mln (prev. saw approximately 200mln).
- Polymarket - Polymarket temporarily halted trading on its international exchange on Thursday following a third-party software compromise. Trading resumed after approximately an hour, with the company pledging to reimburse affected users and referring the incident to UK authorities. Bubblemaps estimated that more than 700 users lost USD 2.7mln, although Polymarket declined to confirm the figures.
CONSUMER DEFENSIVE
- Mondelez (MDLZ) - Q3 adj. EPS 0.78 (exp. 0.71), Q3 revenue USD 9.97bln (exp. 9.99bln). CEO highlighted broad-based volume growth, robust market share performance and continued revenue and earnings momentum across developed and emerging markets. Management noted that North American consumer confidence remains weak, with growth primarily driven by higher-income households. Maintains FY26 outlook, sees FY26 organic net revenue growth of at least 2%, sees FY26 adj. EPS growth between 0-5% on a constant-currency basis, sees FY26 free cash flow of approximately USD 3bln. Currency translation is expected to contribute approximately 1.5ppts to FY26 revenue growth, and 0.04/shr to adj. EPS. Announced an agreement to acquire a majority stake in Undercover Snacks, expanding its portfolio of healthier snacking products; transaction expected to close in early 2027.
- Alcoholic Beverages Spending - Alcohol spending fell to a record-low 0.77% of US household expenditure in 2025, equivalent to USD 630 per household, according to results of the annual Consumer Expenditure Survey published on Thursday by the BLS. The proportion of Americans consuming alcohol remained at 54% in 2026, according to Gallup.
ENERGY
- Crude Forecasts - ANZ raised its year-end Brent crude forecast to USD 105/bbl (prev. saw 95/bbl), citing tightening oil supplies and Middle East disruptions. The bank warned that further escalation after US midterm elections could push prices higher.
- BP (BP) - Q3 adj. net income USD 8.46bln (exp. 7.26bln), Q3 revenue USD 69.9bln (exp. 66.2bln). Operating cash flow USD 14.83bln (exp. 13.32bln), net debt USD 13.9bln (exp. 14.3bln). CEO stated that BP intends to prioritise excess cash flow towards settling its remaining Deepwater Horizon liabilities in full. Sees Q4 upstream production between 2.09-2.23mln BOEPD, reflecting continued Middle East disruptions, activity phasing at bpx energy, seasonally lower gas demand and a roughly 20,000 BOEPD impact from Gulf of America weather, partially offset by recovery from outages. Sees FY26 upstream production between 2.21-2.25mln BOEPD, reflecting Middle East disruptions, the Culzean gas field divestment and reduced Latin American equity interests.
- ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX) - ExxonMobil and Chevron cancelled plans to attend next month’s ADIPEC oil conference in Abu Dhabi amid heightened security concerns in the Middle East, Reuters reports. ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods and Chevron’s upstream chief Clay Neff had been listed as speakers at the event.
INDUSTRIALS
- SpaceX (SPCX), Anthropic (ANT) - Anthropic has become SpaceX’s largest customer, representing about 34.5% of Q3 revenue and surpassing the US government, according to Bloomberg citing sources. The revenue comes via Anthropic’s computing deal with SpaceX’s Super Intelligence AI unit. Anthropic has agreed to spend up to USD 120.5bln under contracts to 2029, though it can cancel with 90 days’ notice from 2027.
- FedEx Freight (FDXF) - FedEx Freight shares rose 3.5% in extended trading after a profit/revenue beat, driven by improved pricing and freight yields, alongside upbeat guidance supported by recovering shipment volumes. Q3 adj. EPS 1.49 (exp. 1.36), Q3 revenue USD 2.44bln (exp. 2.37bln). Revenue was supported by improved pricing, higher yields and fuel surcharges. Sees Q4 adj. EPS between 0.65-0.75 (exp. 0.53), sees Q4 revenue between USD 2.3-2.37bln. For the seven-month FY26 transition period, sees revenue between USD 5.58-5.65bln, adj. operating income between USD 695-715mln (prev. saw 605-645mln), adj. operating margin between 12.5-12.7% (prev. saw 11.5-12.0%) and adj. EPS between 2.80-2.90 (prev. saw 2.40-2.60). Reaffirmed FY27 revenue growth expectations of 4-6%, and an adj. operating margin target of 15%.
- Republic Services (RSG) - Q3 adj. EPS 1.94 (exp. 1.93), Q3 revenue USD 4.56bln (exp. 4.42bln). Announced a new USD 5bln share repurchase authorisation, with USD 800mln remaining under its existing programme. CEO Jon Vander Ark highlighted positive growth trends across the business and improved performance in Environmental Solutions, supported by disciplined pricing, effective cost management and strategic investments. Raises FY26 outlook, sees FY26 revenue between USD 17.425-17.475bln (exp. 17.32bln; prev. saw 17.2-17.3bln), sees FY26 adj. EBITDA between USD 5.55-5.575bln (prev. saw 5.525-5.55bln) and sees FY26 adj. free cash flow between USD 2.565-2.585bln.
- Ingersoll Rand (IR) - Q3 adj. EPS USD 1.07 (exp. 0.90), Q3 revenue USD 2.065bln (exp. 2.05bln). Sees FY26 adj. EPS, ex-Q3 IEEPA tariff refunds, between USD 3.58-3.70 (exp. 3.55), and revenue growth of 5.5-7.0% (exp. 8.12bln).
- Symbotic (SYM), Walmart (WMT) - Symbotic and Walmart announced an expanded commercial agreement to bring additional automation to 25 US regional distribution centres and support Walmart’s global supply chain, with an initial commitment of about USD 6bln in spend over several years across multiple locations.
- Norfolk Southern (NSC), Schneider National (SNDR) - Norfolk Southern and Schneider National announced a strategic partnership covering intermodal shipping networks.
MATERIALS
- Rio Tinto (RIO) - Rio suspended underground operations at its Oyu Tolgoi copper mine in Mongolia after a seismic event triggered a rockfall on Thursday, injuring three workers. Operations remain suspended pending a safety review.
- Vale (VALE) - Q3 EPS 0.29 (exp. 0.42), Q3 revenue USD 10.6bln (exp. 10.46bln). Net income USD 1.26bln (vs 2.69bln Y/Y), pro forma EBITDA USD 3.51bln (vs 4.4bln Y/Y), recurring free cash flow USD 1.4bln. Iron ore production -6% Y/Y to 88.4mln tonnes, copper production -6% Y/Y to 85,500 tonnes; iron ore sales volumes increased 0.3% Y/Y, realised iron ore prices declined 10% Y/Y, weighing on margins alongside higher freight and production costs. Maintains FY26 production outlook, sees FY26 iron ore production between 335-345mln tonnes, with output expected towards the lower end of the range; copper and nickel production are expected in the upper halves of their guidance ranges. Sees FY26 capex towards the lower end of USD 5.4-5.7bln.
- Codelco - Codelco dismissed eight employees following investigations into irregularities in its 2024-2025 copper production reporting, Bloomberg reports. The miner is examining possible double-counting between Salvador and Ministro Hales, with Ernst & Young investigating that case and KPMG reviewing broader output. A separate audit found approximately 27K tonnes, or 2% of last year’s reported production, were improperly recognised as finished.
FINANCIALS
- Blackstone (BX) - Blackstone is negotiating to sell the office portion of Tokyo Garden Terrace Kioicho for around JPY 300bln to a Daiwa Securities Group-linked fund, Bloomberg reports. The proposed sale follows its JPY 400bln acquisition from Seibu Holdings.
- Ares Management (ARES) - Ares Capital, managed by Ares Management, agreed to acquire Apollo Global Management’s (APO) MidCap Financial Investment for USD 2.6bln, extending its lead among publicly traded business development companies. The USD 29bln fund will add 229 portfolio companies, with only 12 overlapping existing investments. Ares Management is contributing USD 100mln towards the transaction. Elsewhere, Ares Management is avoiding financing AI graphics processing units, favouring data centres and power infrastructure due to simpler underwriting and concerns over chip depreciation, Bloomberg reports.
- Credit Agricole (CRARY) - Q3 net income EUR 1.99bln (exp. 2.04bln), Q3 revenue EUR 7.09bln (exp. 7.00bln). Operating costs EUR 3.93bln (exp. 3.92bln), cost of risk EUR 590mln (exp. 520mln), CET1 ratio 11.2% (exp. 11.4%). Asset Gathering revenue EUR 2.03bln (exp. 2.04bln), Large Customers revenue EUR 2.30bln (exp. 2.21bln), French Retail Banking revenue EUR 1.15bln (exp. 1.08bln) and International Retail Banking revenue EUR 1.00bln (exp. 1.04bln). CEO highlighted accelerating European expansion through the establishment of CA Deutschland and the planned acquisition of IKB, a key player in financing Germany's Mittelstand businesses.
- NatWest (NWG) - Q3 PBT GBP 2.23bln (exp. 2.2bln), Q3 revenue GBP 4.464bln (exp. 4.64bln). Net interest income GBP 3.55bln (exp. 3.6bln), net interest margin 2.5% (exp. 2.51%) and CET1 capital ratio 13.5% (exp. 13.4%). Reaffirms FY26 outlook provided at H1.
- AXA (AXAHY) - 9-month gross written premiums and other revenues +5% Y/Y to EUR 93bln. Property & Casualty premiums +3% Y/Y to EUR 48.1bln, while Life & Health premiums +1% Y/Y to EUR 44.8bln. Reaffirms FY26 outlook.
- Capgemini (CGEMY) - Q3 revenue EUR 6.07bln (vs 5.39bln Y/Y). Bookings +3.4% Y/Y to EUR 5.40bln. Raises FY26 constant-currency revenue growth outlook; sees FY26 revenue growth between 9.0-9.5% (prev. saw 8.5-9.0%).
- Coinbase (COIN) -Shares fell almost 4% in extended trading following a sharp decline in quarterly revenue, subdued crypto trading activity and mounting fee competition, which outweighed its return to profitability. Q3 adj. EPS 0.27 (exp. 0.08), Q3 revenue USD 1.22bln (exp. 1.23bln). Crypto trading volume market share reached 10.7%, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of market share gains. Prediction markets surpassed USD 200mln in annualised revenue, while daily traders increased more than 60% Q/Q. Paid Coinbase One subscribers reached a record high, +24% Y/Y, with subscribers generating 3.5 times higher average revenue per user, holding 4.2 times higher balances and demonstrating over 50% higher long-term trading retention. Q4-to-date transaction revenue reached USD 165mln. Sees Q4 subscription and services revenue between USD 550-630mln, and transaction expenses in the mid-teens. Lowers FY26 adjusted expense outlook, sees FY26 adj. expenses view to between USD 4.15-4.30bln (prev. saw 4.2-4.45bln).
- Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG) - Q3 EPS USD 3.00 (exp. 2.99), Q3 revenue USD 3.98bln (exp. 4bln). Combined Brokerage and Risk Management revenue +18%, including 5% organic growth. Net earnings and adjusted EBITDAC +25%, marking a 26th straight quarter of double-digit EBITDAC growth and margin expansion.
- Rocket Companies (RKT) - Q3 adj. EPS 0.15 (exp. 0.13), Q3 adj. revenue USD 2.57bln (exp. 2.6bln). CEO Varun Krishna highlighted market share gains in both purchase and refinance mortgages, sequentially and Y/Y, alongside the company's highest profitability margin in nearly five years despite mortgage rates climbing to a three-year high. Sees Q4 revenue between USD 2.1-2.3bln (exp. 2.57bln).
HEALTHCARE
- Bayer (BAYRY) - Bayer won a St. Louis Roundup trial after a jury rejected cancer claims from three plaintiffs, Bloomberg reports. The verdict follows a US Supreme Court ruling limiting certain Roundup lawsuits. Bayer faces approximately 65K pending cases and has proposed a USD 7.25bln settlement. Roundup litigation has already cost the company over USD 11bln.
- Evonik (EVKIY), BASF (BASFY) - Evonik reportedly plans to reject BASF’s improved EUR 11bln takeover offer of EUR 24/shr, viewing the proposal too low and undervaluing the speciality chemicals group, FT reports citing sources. A formal statement could follow in the coming days.
- AstraZeneca (AZN LN) - Q3 adj. EPS 2.79 (exp. 2.59), Q3 revenue USD 16.2bln (exp. 16bln). CEO highlighted approvals for four new medicines and 12 positive Phase III programme readouts, with combined peak-year revenue potential exceeding USD 10bln. Upcoming clinical readouts in 2027 represent potential revenue opportunities of more than USD 20bln. Management emphasised multiple potential blockbuster assets in late-stage development and the rapid scaling of transformative technologies, supporting confidence in achieving its 2030 ambitions and sustaining growth through the next decade. Confirms FY26 guidance.
- Gilead (GILD) - Gilead shares rose 2.3% in afterhours trading as stronger than expected quarterly earnings and revenue, driven by robust HIV portfolio sales, supported an upgraded FY product sales outlook, overshadowing a wider projected adjusted loss. Q3 adj. EPS 2.55 (exp. 2.19), Q3 revenue USD 8.30bln (exp. 7.80bln), Q3 net income USD 2.43bln (vs 3.05bln Y/Y). Product sales +13% Y/Y to USD 8.29bln, with sales excluding Veklury +16% Y/Y to USD 8.20bln. HIV revenue +18% Y/Y to USD 6.25bln, including Biktarvy sales +10% Y/Y to USD 4.1bln, while HIV prevention sales nearly doubled. Liver disease revenue +13% Y/Y to USD 927mln, oncology revenue +9% Y/Y to USD 860mln. CEO highlighted the strongest base business growth in over a decade, driven by HIV and oncology products. Raises FY26 product sales outlook; sees FY26 product sales between USD 31-31.3bln (exp. 30.54bln; prev. saw 30.1-30.4bln); lowers FY26 adj. EPS outlook, sees FY26 adj. EPS between -1.20 and -0.85 (exp. -0.40; prev. saw -0.65 to -0.30), reflecting approximately 9.88/shr in acquired R&D charges related to recent transactions.
- Sanofi (SNY) - Q3 adj. EPS 3.55 (exp. 2.80), Q3 revenue EUR 14.444bln (exp. 13.254bln). Dupixent sales +34.8% Y/Y to EUR 5.7bln (exp. 5.2bln), pharmaceutical launches sales +31.4% Y/Y to EUR 1.4bln, vaccines sales -6.6% Y/Y to EUR 3.2bln, reflecting weaker flu vaccine and Beyfortus demand. CEO highlighted strong Dupixent demand, new medicine launches and disciplined cost management, while emphasising plans to strengthen the drug pipeline ahead of Dupixent's loss of exclusivity in the early 2030s. Raises FY26 outlook for a second consecutive quarter; sees FY26 revenue growth in the low teens CER (prev. saw around 10%), and sees FY26 adj. EPS growth in the mid-teens CER (prev. saw growth slightly faster than revenue).
- Stryker (SYK) - Stryker shares dropped by over 10% in extended US trading after weaker than expected quarterly earnings and revenue, alongside disappointing guidance. Q3 adj. EPS 3.52 (exp. 3.55), Q3 revenue USD 6.5bln (exp. 6.62bln). Organic sales +7.7% Y/Y, with double-digit adj. earnings growth. Announced an additional USD 5bln share buyback authorisation. CEO acknowledged that quarterly performance fell short of internal expectations despite solid organic growth, but highlighted strong underlying business fundamentals and anticipated improved performance in Q4, with positive momentum heading into 2027. Sees FY26 adj. EPS between 14.80-14.90 (exp. 14.95), sees FY26 organic net sales growth between 6.5-7.0%, including a modestly positive pricing impact. Management expects FX to provide a slightly favourable contribution to both revenue and adj. EPS, assuming current exchange rates remain broadly unchanged.
- Illumina (ILMN) - Q3 adj. EPS 1.44 (exp. 1.36), Q3 revenue USD 1.13bln (exp. 1.15bln). Noted continued momentum in sequencing demand and progress in expanding the Illumina ecosystem, including opportunities for AI to improve understanding of human biology and patient outcomes. Raises FY26 outlook; sees FY26 adj. EPS between 5.40-5.45 (exp. 5.36; prev. saw 5.30-5.40) and sees FY26 revenue between USD 4.64-4.66bln (exp. 4.62bln; prev. saw 4.60-4.64bln).
- DexCom (DXCM) - Q3 EPS USD 0.73 (exp. 0.67), Q3 revenue USD 1.34bln (exp. 1.33bln); US revenue +14%, and international revenue +5%. Board authorised a USD 1bln share buyback. Narrowed FY26 revenue view to USD 5.20-5.25bln (exp. 5.23bln; prev. saw USD 5.15-5.25bln).
What it means
This is the standard heavy-print open, and the pattern across the tape is one that has recurred in prior earnings seasons: beats on the quarter being sold on the guide, particularly where forward cash flow or capex trajectories deteriorate. The dominant thread is AI infrastructure economics. In comparable past episodes, the market has consistently distinguished between the demand signal (cloud and accelerator revenue, backlog) and the return profile (free cash flow compression from elevated capex), with the latter dominating price action when the two diverge, as appears to be the case with AMZN and INTC here. Intel's situation adds an idiosyncratic supply shock, the fab disruption, on top of the structural foundry cash-burn question that has dogged it through multiple quarters of this kind. The NVDA guarantee story fits a widening pattern of circular vendor financing in the AI complex, a structure that in prior capex cycles has eventually drawn scrutiny over who ultimately carries the credit risk. Single-stock reactions of the magnitude flagged after hours typically gap at the open and then fade or extend depending on the call commentary, so conference-call language on capex durability and cash flow timing is the follow-on, alongside any read-across into the semi and memory peer set.
- EUROPEAN OPEN: EVK GY reportedly to reject BAS GY EUR offer; BAYN GY wins St. Louis Roundup trial; AZN LN, SAN FP beats; ACA FP net income misses; NWG LN revenue miss, PBT beat; BP/ LN earnings top expectations
- [MARKET ANALYSIS] DXY is slightly softer following a decline in yields and in-line PPI data
- US CENTCOM Commander Cooper will brief US President Trump on Thursday regarding the state of war with Iran, with focus on the ongoing naval blockade, according to two senior American officials, according to Israel's N12
- PREVIEW: BoJ Rate Decision Scheduled for Friday 30th October 2026 anytime after 02:30GMT/22:30EDT
- US Market Wrap: AI jitters hit tech as Alphabet earnings disappoint; bonds rally
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