DAY AHEAD:

• EVENTS: US President Trump will deliver remarks from New York at 15:00EDT/20:00BST.
• DATA: In Europe, Eurozone Q2 GDP second estimate is expected to print 1.0% Y/Y (prev. 0.5%), with the quarterly figure seen rising 0.4% Q/Q (prev. 0.0%). The Eurozone June trade balance is also due, expected at EUR 5bln (prev. EUR -7.8bln), and the EZ employment change prelim data for Q2 is seen +0.1% Q/Q. In North America, US July retail sales are expected to see the headline rise by 0.1% M/M (prev. 0.2%), with the core measure at 0.2% M/M (prev. -0.2%), and the control group at 0.3% M/M (prev. 0.5%). US will also release prelim University of Michigan consumer sentiment, with the headline seen easing to 54.5 (prev. 55.2), current conditions at 55.0 (prev. 54.8), expectations at 55.2 (prev. 55.4); 1yr inflation expectations are seen easing to 4.1% (from 4.2%), while 5-10yr expectations are seen easing to 3.2% (prev. 3.3%). After today’s data, the Atlanta Fed will update its GDPNow Q3 tracking model (it was previously tracking growth of 5.8%). In Canada, wholesale sales final are seen rising 2.7% M/M (prev. 0%) and final manufacturing sales are seen declining by -0.1% M/M (prev. 1.3%).
• ENERGY: Baker Hughes will report its weekly rig count data (prev. oil 454, gas 124, total 588).
• CRA: Fitch reviews the UK (AA).
• US RETAIL SALES (13:30BST/08:30EDT): The consensus expects US retail sales to rise by 0.1% M/M in July (prev. 0.2%), the core measure rising 0.2% M/M (prev. -0.2%), and the control group rising 0.3% M/M (prev. 0.5%). The Chicago Fed’s July advance retail trade summary sees retail and food services sales ex. autos rising +0.1% M/M seasonally adjusted, and unchanged when adjusted for inflation. BofA's consumer checkpoint data for the month showed total card spending growth easing to 5.0% Y/Y (prev. 6.3% in June), but the bank said that much of the moderation appears tied to the fading of temporary boosts, like the timing of online promotions, and World Cup-related spending, rather than a broad deterioration in underlying demand. "Against this backdrop, consumer financial health looks solid," BofA writes, "despite cost-of-living pressures from areas such as gasoline, the share of households paying off their credit card bills in full each month has risen," adding that "there is little sign of an acceleration in households drawing upon their savings."

NEWS:

GEOPOLITICS:

• US-Iran - Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US plans to announce unprecedented economic measures against Iran next week as part of intensified financial pressure. The measures will accompany the continued blockade of Iranian ports.
• US-North Korea - North Korea condemned planned US-South Korean military drills (scheduled for 17-27th August) and a US nuclear strategy under review, vowing stronger deterrence measures. Pyongyang also criticised Washington’s nuclear posture as destabilising, as it recently conducted two missile tests within six days.

MACRO:

• US Credit Ratings - Fitch affirmed the United States at AA+ with a Stable Outlook. The rating is supported by the country’s large economy, high per-capita income, dynamic business environment and USD reserve-currency status. Fitch said high fiscal deficits, rising government debt and a substantial interest burden constrain the rating, with general government deficits averaging 7% of GDP since 2022. GDP growth is forecast at 1.9% in 2026-2027, while the general government deficit is seen widening to 7.4% of GDP in 2026 from 6.8% in 2025. Debt-to-GDP is projected to reach 123% by YE 2028, with the USD 41.1tln debt ceiling expected to be reached in mid-2027.
• Fedspeak - Fed’s Goolsbee (2027 voter) said recent US inflation data have been “a little better.” He hopes fading tariff and Iran-war oil-price effects will help inflation return towards 2%, adding that inflation around 3% remains too high. Goolsbee said the economy appears fairly stable, and the Fed is primarily monitoring inflation.
• Fed Purchases - The Fed will make no Treasury-bill reserve-management purchases through 14th September, indicating confidence in bank reserve levels, Bloomberg reports. The New York Fed still plans about USD 17bln of reinvestment purchases.
• PBoC - The PBoC injected CNY 349bln through overnight reverse repos, producing a net CNY 348bln liquidity addition, and marking its first mid-month use of the tool, Bloomberg reports. Analysts described the move as a tactical liquidity adjustment rather than a policy shift.
• BoJ - The BoJ could raise interest rates as soon as September and may accelerate tightening beyond its roughly twice-yearly pace, sources told Reuters. Policymakers are increasingly concerned about inflation risks from JPY weakness, Middle East pressures and AI-driven demand. Markets are currently pricing almost 80% probability of a September hike, with another increase potentially possible in December.
• UK Politics - Nigel Farage retained his Clacton seat with 62.8% of the vote after resigning to trigger a by-election amid scrutiny over GBP 5mln received from crypto investor. Count Binface won 26.7%, while major parties boycotted the contest. Parliamentary inquiries into whether the payment required disclosure can now resume.

TRADE:

• US-China - The Trump administration will impose tariffs of up to 100% on imported drones and components. Drones over 25kg or with certain capabilities face the top rate, while smaller drones generally face 25%.
• US-Brazil - Brazil opened a process that could lead to reciprocal measures against US tariffs, Reuters reported. Washington imposed 25% tariffs on some Brazilian goods and 12.5% tariffs linked to forced-labour enforcement concerns. Brazil called the measures unjustified and arbitrary. Its Reciprocity Law permits retaliation beyond tariffs, with options reviewed including audiovisual restrictions and suspending pharmaceutical and agricultural patents.
• US-Australia - Australian PM Albanese said US President Trump agreed to consider Australia’s request for a full tariff exemption or no increase. Albanese cited the US-Australia free trade agreement and Australia’s record on issues including modern slavery during their phone call. Australia currently faces a 12.5% tariff.
• US Automakers - Ford (F), General Motors (GM) and Stellantis (SLTA) plan to argue proposed USMCA changes could add billions in annual costs and weaken competitiveness, Reuters reports. A proposed 50% US-made content threshold and higher North American content requirement could cost each Detroit automaker at least USD 2bln annually. GM expects USD 2.5-3.5bln in tariff costs this year, while Ford estimates about USD 1bln.

INDEX:

• S&P 500 (SPX) - Reddit (RDDT) will replace AvalonBay (AVB) in the S&P 500 before trading on 18th August, while post-merger Vivmark Residential (VMRK) remains in the index. Sun Communities (SUI) will replace Webster Financial (WBS) in the S&P MidCap 400 before trading on 20th August.

TECH:

• Apple (AAPL) - Apple has trained a China-specific large language model with Alibaba’s (BABA) support and plans to launch Apple Intelligence in China in coming months, according to sources cited by Reuters. The proprietary model would give Apple greater control over AI features, while Alibaba’s Qwen and Baidu (BIDU) technology are also planned for Chinese devices.
• Apple (AAPL) - Apple must participate in lower-court proceedings over commissions on purchases outside its App Store after the US Supreme Court rejected its request for a stay. Apple argued it should be allowed to charge developers 15%, while acknowledging the Ninth Circuit’s ruling would imply a zero commission for anything beyond necessary costs.
• Samsung Electronics (SSNLF) - Samsung is considering converting its NRD-K Line 2 in Giheung from R&D use into a foundry send-fab targeting 2nm HBM base dies for Nvidia, ZDNet Korea reports. The facility is targeted to open in H2 2028. Samsung plans about KRW 20tln investment across three NRD-K lines by 2030, though plans may still change.
• LG Group (066570 KS), Nvidia (NVDA) - LG Group will unveil a humanoid robot using Nvidia’s Isaac GR00T platform in Q1 2027 and deepen cooperation in AI data centres and mobility, The Korea Times reports. LG Electronics, LG Innotek and LG Energy Solution will supply key robot components. LG also plans an Nvidia-based AI data centre reference site in H1 2027, and an 80-megawatt facility in H1 2028.
• Applied Materials (AMAT) - Applied Materials’ shares fell 5.1% in extended US trading as lofty investor expectations overshadowed solid quarterly results, an above-consensus outlook, and continued strength in AI-related semiconductor equipment demand. Q3 adj. EPS 3.50 (exp. 3.40), Q3 revenue +25% Y/Y at USD 9.12bln (exp. 9.0bln). Revenue reached a record, with the company also posting the highest sequential revenue growth in its history. Management expects strong H2 demand across DRAM, leading-edge foundry-logic and advanced packaging, with calendar-2026 packaging revenue now seen growing more than 70% (up from prior expectations of more than 50%). CEO said AI adoption is driving unprecedented demand for materials engineering solutions, while customer visibility has lengthened, with some discussions extending to 2030. Sees Q4 adj. EPS between 3.82-4.22 (exp. 3.68), Q4 revenue between USD 9.75-10.75bln (exp. 9.54bln), Q4 adj. gross margin of about 50.4% (exp. 50.15%). Management also raised its FY26 Semiconductor Systems revenue expectations and expects another strong growth year in 2027.
• Lam Research (LRCX) - Lam Research plans to invest more than USD 3bln over the next five years to expand its global R&D laboratory network. The multi-site programme is expected to increase experiment capacity by more than 50%. Lam said the investment will strengthen its integrated 24/7 R&D network and shorten product-development cycles from pathfinding through fab deployment.
• Micron (MU) - Micron launched the USD 250mln Micron Ventures Paradigm Fund to invest in companies developing AI technologies. The fund, Micron Ventures’ third and largest to date, will target the full AI stack, including model architectures, compute infrastructure, enterprise applications and physical AI.
• Pony AI (PONY), Uber Technologies (UBER) - Pony.ai and Uber plan to deploy more than 2,000 Pony.ai robotaxis across Europe. The partnership will expand from Zagreb to four additional European cities, with Middle East deployments also planned. Pony.ai will provide Level 4 autonomous-driving technology and operational expertise, while Uber brings booking, payments, customer service and platform access.
• OpenAI - OpenAI hired Wiz president and COO Dali Rajic as chief revenue officer, replacing Denise Dresser after less than a year, Bloomberg reports. Dresser will leave after a transition period. The appointment follows several executive departures. OpenAI said its annual revenue run rate rose more than 20% month-on-month in July, including 32% growth among business customers. Bloomberg also notes that OpenAI is on pace to generate annualised revenue above USD 40bln, approximately double its run rate at the end of last year; revenue has accelerated in recent months, partly driven by growth in its AI coding software, strengthening the company’s plans for an IPO.

CONSUMER CYCLICALS:

• Prediction Markets, Crypto - The White House is expected to host cryptocurrency and prediction-market executives next Wednesday, Politico reports. Attendees remain unclear, and may include traditional finance executives, while President Trump’s participation is uncertain. The gathering is scheduled a day before a CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee meeting involving crypto, gambling, finance and prediction-market officials.
• Lululemon (LULU) - Lululemon’s chief AI and technology officer Ranju Das has left after less than a year, Bloomberg reports. The company is now searching for a new technology leader. His departure follows the recent exit of chief strategy officer Rachel Acheson, and comes before Heidi O’Neill becomes CEO on 8th September.
• Volkswagen (VWAGY) - Volkswagen plans to reduce its 87.5% stake in Traton to 75% plus one share as part of a broader cost-cutting and asset-sale programme, Bloomberg reports. Traton CEO Christian Levin said pressure from Volkswagen to control costs and investments has increased. Volkswagen previously sold 2.2% of Traton for about EUR 360mln in March 2025.

CONSUMER DEFENSIVE:

• Tyson Foods (TSN) - Tyson Foods plans to close beef plants in Illinois and Utah, and sell a Washington facility as US cattle supplies remain at a 75-year low, WSJ reports. The moves would eliminate roughly one-third of its previous beef-processing operations.

FINANCIALS:

• Goldman Sachs (GS) - Goldman Sachs is discussing investor participation in Nvidia’s (NVDA) USD 500bln-plus AI infrastructure financing initiative, sources told Reuters. US insurers, asset managers and banks are expected to be core investors. Goldman may provide junior capital, private credit and debt placement. Nvidia can backstop up to USD 125bln, or 25%, while the structure aims to broaden funding sources and reduce costs, Reuters said.
• Citigroup (C) - Citi agreed to acquire Kard Financial, which operates a commerce media and rewards platform for banks and fintechs. Citi said the acquisition would support more personalised customer offers and create opportunities for brands and merchants. Terms were undisclosed, and are not material to Citi’s financial results.
• Western Union (WU), International Money Express (IMXI) - New York’s Department of Financial Services will approve Western Union’s acquisition of International Money Express after securing consumer-protection commitments, Governor Kathy Hochul announced. Western Union must maintain locations and remittance services in New York and cap fee increases for three years. Agreements with DFS and the Attorney General also restrict service reductions for remittances to six countries.

INDUSTRIALS:

• Boeing (BA) - A Delaware judge dismissed a shareholder lawsuit accusing Boeing directors of ignoring safety risks before the 2024 Alaska Airlines 737 Max 9 door-plug blowout, Bloomberg reports. The judge found the board did not act in bad faith, and had not been alerted to ongoing legal violations or risks requiring further action.
• QXO (QXO) - Q2 adj. EPS 0.08 (exp. 0.08), Q2 revenue USD 3.25bln (exp. 3.18bln). Management said results reflected current market conditions alongside progress upgrading technology to improve customer service and drive financial growth. CEO Brad Jacobs reiterated the company’s long-term targets to more than double EBITDA by 2030 and reach USD 50bln of revenue within the decade.
• Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) - Stanley Black & Decker CEO told CNBC that it is increasing innovation investment after taking steps to strengthen its balance sheet; he said leverage has declined significantly over the past year, allowing greater investment in its brands. The company is also focused on professional construction, and expects only 5% of imports to come from China by year-end.
• Northrop Grumman (NOC) - Northrop received a USD 158.83mln US Army contract modification for contract definitisation.

ENERGY:

• BP (BP) - BP announced that it has been awarded an exploration and production licence for Phase 2 of the Loran field in the Plataforma Deltana area in Venezuela.

MATERIALS:

• Anglo American (NGLOY) - Anglo American’s Kumba Iron Ore agreed a yearlong supply deal with China Mineral Resources Group covering 1st April 2026 through 31st March 2027, Bloomberg reports. The agreement excludes Anglo’s Minas-Rio project. Potential Kumba volumes supplied to CMRG are estimated at 8-10mln tonnes.
• Norsk Hydro (NHYDY) Norsk Hydro said Alunorte reached a temporary agreement with gas supplier CELBA on terminal access and has begun increasing alumina production; the refinery had previously reduced output temporarily due to disruptions in natural gas availability.

HEALTHCARE:

• Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY), UMB Financial (UMBF) - A US appeals court revived a USD 6.7bln lawsuit accusing Bristol Myers Squibb of delaying approvals for three Celgene drugs to avoid payments to former shareholders, Reuters reports. The court said UMB Bank could represent shareholders despite an appointment error. Breyanzi received FDA approval on 5th February 2021, five weeks after the relevant deadline.
• Valneva (VALN), Pfizer (PFE) - The EMA validated Pfizer and Valneva’s Marketing Authorisation Application for PF-07307405, their six-valent OspA-based Lyme disease vaccine candidate. The application is supported by Phase 3 VALOR data showing efficacy above 70% in participants aged five years and older. The vaccine was well tolerated, with no safety concerns identified.
• Zoetis (ZTS) - Zoetis said Simparica Trio received US FDA Emergency Use Authorisation to treat New World screwworm infestations in dogs and puppies. The larvae, Cochliomyia hominivorax, feed on living tissue including open wounds in livestock, wildlife and pets, and can cause damage, pain and death if untreated.