US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Sep) 9.8 (Prev. 11.6)

A modest sequential decline from an already positive reading falls well within the survey's typical month-to-month noise, and single-print wobbles in this series have tended to be reversed or revised in importance by the national release that follows. The distinction that matters in this series is between the headline diffusion index and the subcomponents, new orders and employment in particular, which have historically been the better leading guide to the national factory picture than the topline. Its energy-sector weighting also gives it a regional tilt, since the district's respondents respond partly to oil and gas conditions rather than the broader manufacturing cycle. The tell is whether the other regional surveys and the ISM corroborate the direction; a lone soft print here has not, on past form, been the kind of release that re-prices the front end.