US Durable Goods Orders ex Defense MoM (Jun) M/M 0.3% (Prev. -4.6%)

Durable goods is one of the noisier US activity series, and swings of this magnitude in either direction are usually traced to the aircraft component rather than the underlying trend, which is why the street has long treated the ex-defense and capital-goods nondefense ex-aircraft lines as the signal and the headline as the noise. A positive print following a deeply negative one is the standard pattern after a month dominated by cancelled or deferred aircraft bookings, a reversal that tends to mean-revert rather than compound. Without the core capital goods breakdown, the note that matters for the rates market is whether business investment momentum is intact, since that line feeds directly into GDP estimates where headline durables rarely do. Prints of this kind have historically moved front-end pricing only when the core components confirm the direction; a headline bounce with a soft core has tended to fade within the session. The follow-ons are the revisions to the prior month and the shipments line, which is the component that actually enters the GDP accounting.