US Durable Goods Orders MoM (Jun) M/M 0.3% vs. Exp. 1.6% (Prev. -4.5%)

Headline durable goods is one of the noisiest series in the US calendar, dominated by swings in civilian aircraft and defence bookings that can dwarf the underlying trend, so a large miss against consensus has historically been discounted until the composition is known. The numbers that have mattered in comparable prints are the ex-transport reading and especially core capital goods orders and shipments, the latter feeding directly into the equipment investment component of GDP, which is where the durable signal for growth and for the rates path actually transmits. A miss driven by a giveback in aircraft orders after a strong prior month reads very differently from one concentrated in core capital goods, and prior episodes of the former kind have tended to fade within the session while the latter has moved the front end and the dollar more durably. Revisions to the prior month are worth checking alongside the headline, since this series is revised heavily and a soft print paired with an upward revision has often neutralised the initial reaction. The follow-ons are the shipments detail for the GDP tracking estimates and whether the weakness shows up in the regional factory surveys and the next ISM.