US Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM (Jun) M/M 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.9% (Prev. 1.3%)

Ex-transportation durables is the cleaner read on underlying capital goods demand, stripping out the lumpy aircraft and defence orders that routinely distort the headline and are largely reversed in subsequent revisions. A miss against consensus with a still-positive print fits the common pattern in this series: the market reaction typically hinges on whether the miss lands alongside a downward revision to the prior month, since a rising prior base often absorbs a soft current print and blunts the repricing. Historically the durables release moves the front end and the dollar only modestly on its own; it matters more as an input to the equipment investment component of GDP tracking estimates, and desks running nowcasts adjust on the core capital goods orders and shipments lines rather than the headline. The distinction worth drawing is between orders, which are a sentiment-adjacent leading indicator, and shipments, which feed the current quarter directly. Follow-ons are the core capital goods detail within the release itself and how the print shifts GDP tracker inputs ahead of the next estimate.