US EQUITY OPEN: Indices in the red, albeit rangebound, in quiet trade
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US EQUITY OPEN: Indices in the red, albeit rangebound, in quiet trade
Senior Iranian source says Tehran’s retaliation for US strikes on Larak showed “no target in the region is beyond Iran’s reach,” warning that Iran would respond to every US attack with force “dozens of times greater", Reuters reports
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On the Newsquawk feed at , 20 minutes before this page.
OPEN: US indices opened in the red, albeit in very thin newsflow, with sectors predominantly beneath the unchanged mark. Energy is the only sector in the green and clear outperformer, buoyed by gains of c. USD 2.50/bbl in the crude complex. Over the weekend the US attacked two missile launchers of the IRGC on Larak Island on Sunday, while IRGC later said that they retaliated with missiles and drones against two US bases in Jordan and warned that any attack against them will be met with a more devastating response. In more recent trade, Trump remarked US will respond to Iran attacks, and separate Iranian sources said Tehran’s retaliation for US strikes on Larak showed “no target in the region is beyond Iran’s reach". Back to sectors, Utilities is the clear laggard and hit by weakness in PCG, EIX, and SRE. G10 FX performance is very rangebound vs. the Greenback, while Treasuries are steeper, with the short end bid and the long-end sold. Precious metals are also lower. Calendar ahead is empty, with highlights later in the week being ISM Mfg. PMI, JOLTS (Tues), Beige Book (Wed), Waller, ISM Svcs. PMI (Thurs), and NFP (Fri).
STOCK SPECIFICS
- Pinterest (PINS) CFO Julia Brau Donnelly resigned to pursue another opportunity.
- PG&E (PCG) received multiple downgrades after California lawmakers blocked proposed wildfire liability reforms.
- GameStop (GME) Q2 prelim sales topped expectations.
- Coinbase (COIN) and WeBull (BULL) expand partnership.
- SAIC (SAIC) beat on top and bottom line, with FY guidance better than anticipated.
- Engine Capital is pushing for EPAM Systems (EPAM) to boost share buybacks or consider putting itself up for sale, reports FT.
- Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Huang confirmed USD 3.5bln investment in MediaTek (2454 TT); Vera Rubin platform gives Nvidia USD 40bln+ of revenue per GW.
Context
Strikes exchanged between the US and Iran, with retaliation against US bases in the region and threats of escalation on both sides, fit a familiar pattern in which the first market expression runs through crude and the risk premium in energy rather than through equities directly, consistent with Energy being the sole green sector on an otherwise soft open. The established sequence in comparable episodes is an initial crude bid and haven bid in the front end of Treasuries, here visible in the steeper curve with the short end bid, followed by fade-or-extend depending on whether further kinetic action materialises; rangebound trade in G10 FX and indices on thin newsflow is the typical holding pattern while headlines are awaited. The distinction worth drawing is between contained exchange, where the oil premium has historically bled out over sessions, and disruption to actual supply or shipping, which is what has previously sustained the move; rhetoric about no target being beyond reach speaks to the tail rather than the base case. The wildfire-linked utility weakness is idiosyncratic and legislative in origin, not macro, and should not be conflated with the geopolitical tape. The calendar ahead, ISM, JOLTS, Beige Book, Waller and payrolls, provides the next scheduled catalysts, with the geopolitical headline flow the unscheduled one. As an open rather than a settled session, the read is directional.
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