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US EQUITY OPEN: Indices open in the green post cooler-than-expected PCE as MU numbers await

Newsquawk StaffPublished On the live feed at , 20 minutes before this page
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US EQUITY OPEN: Indices open in the green post cooler-than-expected PCE as MU numbers await

China's MOFCOM says China and Canada hold meeting on economy and trade

US President Trump to announce eight nuclear power plants funded by South Korea as part of South Korea's USD 200bln US investment

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OPEN: US indices opened in the green following on from the gains seen in US equity futures after the cooler-than-expected US PCE report for August, and also extending on moves following dovish remarks from Fed's Williams on Tuesday. Regarding the softer-than-expected PCE report, there were downside risks given the BEA methodology change. Following this, initially, Treasuries and spot gold saw upside, while the Dollar Index saw pressure, with the former two giving back a decent chunk of their gains at the time of writing. In FX, G10 peers are predominantly firmer vs. the Greenback, with the Aussie the clear laggard after the soft Aussie CPI report. The crude complex sees gains of c. USD 2/bbl.

Sectors are seeing a downward bias, with Real Estate and Health lagging, with Tech and Communication Services sitting atop of the pile. Ahead, Micron earnings after-hours await and could be the next catalyst for the space. Elsewhere on the US data front, ADP surged above expectations, while the advanced goods trade balance was a deeper deficit than Wall St. consensus and widened M/M.

In the calendar ahead, there is once again a slew of Fed speak, including Barkin, Cook, Goolsbee, and Kashkari as well as the weekly EIA figures for the energy traders; the API weekly inventory figures reportedly showed headline crude stocks posting a surprise build of +1.0mln (exp. -1.1mln), Cushing stocks built by +0.2mln, gasoline saw a surprise build of +3.0mln (exp. -0.5mln), while distillate stocks saw a draw of -0.3mln (exp. +0.0mln).

STOCK SPECIFICS:

  • Concentrix (CNXC) revenue missed with next quarter guidance light as was FY revenue view
  • Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) secures first AMD Helios order in $1.2bln deal w/ Vultr
  • FactSet (FDS) FY profit view underwhelmed
  • Jacobs (J) to deploy data center digital twin for Nvidia's R&D facility in the US.
  • Target (TGT) was upgraded at HSBC
  • Moderna (MRNA) was downgraded at Citi
  • Boeing (BA) wins USD 20bln+ F/A-XX contract
  • Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) deeper loss per shr. than exp. & rev. missed
Context

A cooler core PCE print of this kind has historically been the softest form of dovish confirmation: the Fed's preferred gauge missing to the downside tends to pull the front end of the curve lower, soften the dollar, and lift gold, with the established pattern being an initial fade of part of those moves once desks digest composition, and here Treasuries and gold have already retraced a decent share of the knee-jerk. The nuance worth registering is the pre-flagged BEA methodology change, which had set up downside risk to the print and therefore mutes the signal content; episodes where a miss was partly anticipated via data construction tend to hold their repricing less durably than clean surprises. The concurrent data flow cuts both ways, with ADP running hot and the goods trade deficit widening, so the labour side of the dual mandate is not corroborating the disinflation read. The established sequence from here is Fed speak picking up the print within days, and today's slate of Barkin, Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari is the first test of whether the centre of the committee treats it as trend confirmation or noise. On the micro side, Micron after the close is the named catalyst for the hardware complex, while the API surprise builds in crude and gasoline, against a complex up roughly USD 2/bbl, set up the EIA figures as the energy check.

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