US EQUITY OPEN: Indices open slightly in the red after a deluge of data ahead of NVDA earnings
OPEN: US indices opened with slight losses after a slew of data and ahead of earnings from Nvidia after-hours. Sectors are mixed as Industrials and Materials sit atop of the breakdown, while Communication Services and Health lag; the former is weighed by slight pressure in Meta as it agreed to a multi-billion dollar settlement over claims that its platforms harm children. Recapping the data, core PCE was in line with expectations, while headline was a tenth hotter on both the M/M and Y/Y metrics. Durable goods impressed, and point to still-solid investment, although core capital goods disappointed. GDP data was largely unchanged, albeit with a modest rise in the price index that pushed up nominal growth. The Dollar Index is firmer against most G10s, with the Swissy and Kiwi the underperformers, while the Aussie is the clear G10 gainer post-data; Aussie CPI beat estimates, remaining above the RBA’s 3% upper inflation target with the RBA’s preferred measure, trimmed mean, unchanged at 3.6% Y/Y above expectations of 3.5%. The crude complex extends on Tuesday's losses, with precious metals also in the red. Treasuries are softer ahead of the 5yr note auction. Elsewhere, Fed's Barkin is scheduled with the pivotal aforementioned NVDA numbers after-hours.
STOCK SPECIFICS:
- Intuit (INTU): Dismal next Q & FY guidance
- Zoom Communications (ZM): Next Q outlook light, disappointing investors hoping its expanded product suite would drive stronger growth
- Kohl's (KSS): Rev. light; profit topped & raised guidance, but tariff refunds have done a lot of heavy lifting
- Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF): Strong Q metrics w/ strong guidance
- J M Smucker (SJM): Top & bottom line beat alongside raising FY outlook
- Solar Edge Technologies (SEDG): Upgraded at UBS
- Boston Scientific (BSX): Identified a cybersecurity incident affecting certain of its information technology systems that has resulted in a global disruption to the company's operations.
- States and Meta (META) and agree to settle claims that platforms harmed children, according to a court filing; Meta agrees to pay a maximum of USD 16.68bln to states as part of deal.
Sessions where a dense domestic data slate lands ahead of a single dominant after-hours earnings report have tended to trade cautiously, with index moves muted as positioning defers to the evening print; the day's macro inputs often get fully priced only after the earnings event resolves. The data mix here is typical of its kind: an in-line core PCE with a marginally hotter headline has historically been treated as noise rather than a signal, while a split between solid headline durables and soft core capital goods is the sort of divergence that muddies the investment narrative without shifting it. Cross-asset colour follows a familiar pattern, with the dollar firmer on sticky inflation, front-end yields softening into a mid-curve auction, and the antipodean divergence, a hot Australian CPI against an unchanged trimmed mean, driving the Aussie outperformance through the rate differential channel rather than risk sentiment. The distinguishable follow-ons are the 5yr auction result as a read on duration appetite, Barkin's remarks for how officials frame the hotter headline PCE, and the NVDA print, which given its index weight has in past episodes dictated the next session's sector leadership regardless of the prior day's macro. The Meta settlement is of the order that has previously been absorbed as a one-off legal cost rather than a valuation event, though the size is large enough to weigh Communication Services on the day.