US EQUITY OPEN: NDX lags as memory weakness weighs on Columbus Day

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US EQUITY OPEN: NDX lags as memory weakness weighs on Columbus Day

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OPEN: US indices open mixed, as the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (-0.4%) lags and weighed on by weakness in memory names, highlighted by Micron lower by 3.5% after China’s CXMT unveiled ‘key progress’ on chip structure. Overall, sectors are mixed with Energy and Communication Services sitting atop of the pile, with the former buoyed by gains of c. USD 2/bbl in crude benchmarks. In terms of latest news, Saudi Energy Ministry expects it will take 2-3 years to increase oil pipeline capacity to 10mln BPD, while Trump announced a potential Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire, although this saw some pushback from Ukraine amid fresh Russian strikes on a power plant. Regarding diesel, US President Trump lifted Russia's diesel export ban to help offset high diesel prices. Back to sectors, Consumer Discretionary and Technology are the laggards.

The Dollar Index is firmer to the detriment of most G10 FX peers, with the Swissy the clear laggard and the Pound the relative outperformer ahead of PM Burnham’s speech today, where he is expected to speak on improving the UK’s relationship with the EU. Precious metals are lower, while T-Note futures are marginally lower, but as a reminder cash treasury trade is closed due to US Columbus Day. Given that, the day ahead is quiet with only Fed's Hammack and LVMH earnings scheduled.

STOCK SPECIFICS

  • CCC Intelligent Solutions Holdings (CCC) is in advanced talks to be acquired by GTCR & Elliott & deal could be announced as soon as this week
  • IonQ (IONQ) to purchase Elisity in a transaction that is valued at up to $1.3bln
  • Salesforce (CRM) double upgraded at Bank of America to 'Buy' from 'Underperform'
  • Iren (IREN) quietly signed a multiyear cloud computing deal w/ Anthropic
  • Amazon (AMZN) in talks to acquire Decart AI in a deal valued c. $7bln
  • Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) announces Phase 3 ACTION-1 for RYZ101 met the primary endpoint
  • Solventum (SOLV) gathering initial bids for its Health Information Systems unit, and being pitched at a valuation of $5.5-7bln
  • Starbucks (SBUX) said it is not buying Chipotle (CMG) after takeover speculation

Context

Holiday-thinned US sessions are a known quantity: cash Treasuries closed while futures and equities trade, which historically produces exaggerated moves in index products against stale rate signals, and leaves sector rotation, rather than macro, setting the tone. The NDX underperformance here traces to a specific channel, memory names hit by reports of Chinese DRAM progress, a recurring pattern in which competitive announcements out of Chinese semiconductor firms have periodically knocked the domestic memory and equipment complex, with the read-through typically fading unless confirmed by capacity or pricing evidence rather than headline claims. Energy leadership on crude gains alongside reported Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire talk and the lifting of a Russian diesel export restriction fits the familiar sequence in which geopolitical headlines whipsaw refined product and crude benchmarks intraday before fundamentals reassert. Single-stock deal flow and the analyst double upgrade dominate the tape in the absence of macro catalysts, which is typical of holiday sessions where idiosyncratic news gets outsized weight. The scheduled Fed speaker and the European luxury earnings print are the only follow-ons, with the Fed commentary the more relevant tell given the closed cash curve.

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