US EQUITY OPEN: Stocks gain after Trump agrees to halt strikes; Mag-7 lead gains
OPEN: Stocks open higher, helped by the drop in oil prices in response to US President Trump announcing he has agreed to halt strikes on Iran, subject to making a rapid deal. Crude prices are trading USD 8/bbl lower on the news, bringing US yields lower with it. That said, the moves in yields are smaller in comparison to the drop in energy prices. Iran has downplayed suggestions talks are ongoing, whilst they reportedly responded to the latest US proposal by refusing to open the Strait of Hormuz until the war is completely over. Sectors are generally firmer, led by Communications, and Consumer Discretionary. The Mag-7 are driving the bulk of gains of indices, Alphabet (GOOGL +4.5%), Meta (META +5.8%), Amazon (AMZN +4.6%), Microsoft (MSFT +5.5%), although Apple (AAPL -1.3%) continues to lag post Q2 earnings. Meanwhile, Energy and Teg lag. Semiconductors and memory names are both trading in the red with the correlation shifting back to positive. Earlier it was reported that China's CXMT is considering a second memory chip plant in Beijing. Additionally, AI competition concerns linger after Alibaba (BABA) unveiled Qwen3.8-Max, its largest AI model.
In FX, the dollar continues to lose ground against the JPY following confirmation of US-Japan joint intervention on the currency last Friday. Meanwhile, the dollar is largely rebounding against other major currency pairs, particularly vs Antipodes. Despite the improved risk sentiment, precious metals are weighed by dollar resilience.
US ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.6, better than the expected 54 (prev. 53.3); Prices fell, New Orders and Employment rose. Meanwhile the US S&P Global PMI unchanged at 53.9 M/M.
STOCK SPECIFICS
- AstraZeneca (AZN), Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY): The Two companies are in talks over a combination that would create a pharmaceutical group valued at nearly USD 400bln, according to the FT.
- GameStop (GME): Announces private exchange of USD 1.4bln of convertible senior notes for equity.
- CXMT (688825 CN) - Reportedly considering a second memory chip plant in Beijing, according to sources
- Lantheus Holdings (LNTH): Curium confirms it is to merge with Lantheus Holdings (LNTH) in deal valued at USD 8bln, or USD 114.50/shr.
- Alibaba (BABA): Unveiled Qwen3.8-Max, its largest AI model.
- SpaceX (SPCX): Shares slide ahead of earnings and subsequent lock up expiration; Bloomberg reports short interest of 219.34mln shares, 34% of publicly available stock.
- ArcelorMittal (MT): Announced expanded tech partnership with Microsoft (MSFT).
- Ferguson (FERG): To join S&P 500 prior to open on 5th August.
- Ebay (EBAY): Downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo; PT USD 92 (prev USD 105).
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL): Downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT USD 38 (prev USD 106).
- Boeing (BA): Upgraded to Outperform from Underperform at BNP Paribas Exane
- Starbucks (SBUX): Upgraded to Hold from Sell at Melius.
Ceasefire-adjacent announcements of this kind have a familiar sequence: crude prices gap lower on the removal of a supply-risk premium, the energy component of inflation expectations comes off, and yields follow oil but by less, which is precisely the configuration described here. The Mag-7 leadership on the day fits the established pattern of risk relief rallies, in which the largest index weights drive the bulk of points gains regardless of their own catalysts. The asymmetry worth noting is that halts conditioned on a 'rapid deal' have historically been fragile when the other side publicly disputes that talks exist, and Iran's reported position on the Strait of Hormuz keeps the freight and insurance channel, the actual mechanism through which the conflict reached crude, live as a re-escalation trigger rather than a resolved one. The concurrent confirmation of joint US-Japan FX intervention is a rare instrument and past episodes of coordinated intervention have tended to produce follow-through only when aligned with rate differentials, so the yen leg is the one where precedent argues for caution in extrapolating. The stronger ISM print with a falling prices subindex is a combination that has historically been treated as goldilocks for the equity tape. Follow-ons of note are any Iranian confirmation or denial of talks, tanker and insurance pricing through Hormuz, and whether intervention in the yen is repeated or one-off.