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US EQUITY OPEN: Stocks lower as oil climbs and Samsung prelim earnings hit memory sector

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Pakistan says that reports of Pakistani fighter jets participating in the attack on Yemen are false and fabricated, Fars reports

US EQUITY OPEN: Stocks lower as oil climbs and Samsung prelim earnings hit memory sector

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OPEN: Stocks have opened lower on Thursday, with underperformance in the Nasdaq, while tech stocks underperform following Samsung (SSNLF/005930 KS) prelim Q3 earnings overnight, seeing the stock close lower by 2% - weighing on US memory names, while chip names (NVDA, AVGO, AMD and INTC) are also falling. Broadcom (AVOG) is lower after WSJ reported it is weighing a financing plan that could raise over USD 50bln for OpenAI's purchase of custom AI chips, involving private credit firms like Apollo and Blackstone.

Meanwhile, the Treasury yield curve is flattening with front-end yields rising while long-end yields are lower ahead of the 20-30 year buyback operation and the 30-year bond auction due later today.

In FX, Aussie is marginally lower while Euro and Dollar are flat. The ECB Minutes saw eurozone yields move lower, in turn supporting the Euro as it eased fiscal concerns, with the minutes acknowledging higher, orderly yields could affect where policy rates should go in the future, suggesting the move higher in yields could do some of the tightening for them.

Crude prices are rallying today on further reports that US President Trump is considering striking Iran again before the midterms. Some pressure was seen after Tasnim reported commentary from Iran FM Araghchi that they are reviewing the US proposal and will respond within a few days - albeit, given talks with the mediator stalled in recent days, the chances of an agreement remain slim. There have also been further strikes in Saudi Arabia by the Houthis, and also more threats for attacks on oil facilities.

STOCK SPECIFICS

  • TSMC (TSM) Sept. rev. rose 54.6% Y/Y to TWD 511.86bln
  • WSJ says Broadcom (AVGO) is arranging >$50bln of financing for OpenAI’s custom AI chips
  • Wolfspeed (WOLF) announces conditional 30yr, $1.5bln loan commitment from US DoD
  • Levi Strauss (LEVI) rev. light w/ weak next Q profit view
  • PepsiCo (PEP) top & bottom line surpassed exp.
  • argenx (ARGX) will discontinue Phase 3 UNITY study of efgartigimod subcutaneous
  • Crescent Energy (CRGY) to buy Devon's (DVN) Eagle Ford assets for $4.22bln in cash
  • Viatris (VTRS) agrees to acquire Pacira Biosciences (PCRX) for $36.5/shr or $1.65bln; PCRX closed Wed. at $25.20/shr
  • Samsung Electronics prelim Q3 op. profit +783% Y/Y & rev. +127% Y/Y, albeit both missed exp.
  • Google (GOOGL) Cloud introduces Gemini agent
  • GlobalFoundries (GFS) signs a five-year silicon interposer manufacturing agreement with TSMC (TSM), volume production expected to ramp up in H1'28

Context

Sessions framed around a sector bellwether miss have a familiar sequence: a memory producer's preliminary numbers land short of expectations and the weakness transmits first to the closest peer set, memory names and then the broader semiconductor complex, even where the year-on-year growth rates look large, because it is the guide-versus-expectations gap and not the absolute level that drives the read-across. Headlines of a major power weighing strikes on a Gulf producer sit alongside regional attacks on energy infrastructure; in past episodes of this kind crude has carried a geopolitical risk premium that ebbs and flows with negotiating headlines, and the split to watch is between rhetoric, which fades quickly, and actual supply disruption, which is what has historically sustained a move in the term structure rather than just the front contract. A flattening Treasury curve into duration supply, with the front end rising and the long end lower ahead of a buyback and a long bond auction, is a recurring pattern where the auction tail and the concession built into the belly-to-long-end set the tone for the afternoon. On the ECB minutes, the transmission channel is the recognition that higher term premia tighten financial conditions on their own, easing the fiscal-driven yield rise concern and supporting the euro; that argument has recurred whenever a central bank weighs whether market pricing is doing its work for it. The follow-ons are the long bond auction result, any confirmation or denial from the negotiating parties, and whether the memory weakness broadens into the wider AI-complex trade or stays contained as a single-quarter print.

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