US EQUITY OPEN: Stocks mixed on quad witching

Quad-witching sessions have a well-established pattern: volumes run heavy into the close, index-level moves can be exaggerated by rolls and rebalancing flows rather than fresh information, and sector dispersion often matters more than the headline indices.

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US EQUITY OPEN: Stocks mixed on quad witching

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US EQUITY OPEN: Stocks opened mixed on Friday, with the Nasdaq firmer, the Dow lower and the S&P 500 relatively flat, while the RSP and Russell are both lower. Sectors are predominantly in the red, although Communication Services, Technology and Consumer Discretionary lead the gains, helping explain the Nasdaq's outperformance. On the flip side, Materials, Utilities and Real Estate underperform. Note, it is quad-witching today, which could exacerbate any unexplained volatility.

Crude prices are firmer after Bloomberg reported that Saudi Arabia told European refiners they will not receive any crude next month. This follows previous reports that September cargoes had also been cancelled, suggesting the disruption to Saudi crude deliveries to Europe will continue into October.

In FX, the Yen is the clear underperformer following the BoJ rate decision, which saw the Bank hike by 25bps to 1.25%, as expected, in a 7-2 vote. The central bank's language continued to signal further rate increases, but offered no major sense of urgency, a message echoed by Governor Ueda during his press conference. Elsewhere, FX is relatively contained, with marginal AUD outperformance while NZD is under pressure, seemingly as a function of AUD/NZD rising above 1.2400.

Treasury yields are higher across the curve and appear to be tracking firmer crude prices, with front-end yields rising faster than the long-end, resulting in a bear flattening of the curve. US data had little impact, with Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production both disappointing expectations. There is little else scheduled on the calendar. Fed's Bowman spoke but did not comment on monetary policy or the economic outlook, instead providing an update on stress tests and the SVB failures.

Stock Specifics

  • Texas Instruments (TXN): Raised quarterly dividend 7%
  • On Holding (ONON) / Nike (NKE): On signs Kylian Mbappé as part of its football push as he ends his long-term relationship with Nike
  • Nucor (NUE): Next-quarter earnings outlook light
  • Steel Dynamics (STLD): Q3 earnings guidance underwhelmed
  • Netflix (NFLX): Downgraded at Wells Fargo
  • Xenon Pharmaceuticals (XENE): Pausing enrolment of new patients in clinical studies for treatments for major and bipolar depression
Context

The note that cap-weighted benchmarks are firmer while the equal-weight and small-cap gauges lag fits a familiar narrow-leadership tape, where mega-cap Communication Services and Tech carry the index against broad weakness elsewhere. The BoJ component follows its recent form: a fully expected hike with guidance pointing to more tightening but no urgency has historically produced yen softness rather than strength, since the carry differential against the front end of the U.S. curve only compresses when the Bank signals acceleration. On crude, the Saudi cancellation of European cargoes is the kind of supply signal that transmits through physical differentials and freight before flat price, and prior episodes of this kind have seen refiners substitute into Atlantic basin grades. The bear flattening in Treasuries tracking oil rather than data is consistent with an inflation-impulse read on the front end, and the light data calendar leaves positioning, rather than prints, as the driver into the expiry close.

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