US Factory Orders ex Transportation (Jul) 0.6% (Prev. -0.1%)

US Factory Orders ex Transportation (Jul) 0.6% (Prev. -0.1%)

Factory orders ex transportation is a second-tier US release that typically lands with modest market impact on its own, since the headline durables print has usually already crossed and this series largely confirms or fine-tunes it. The swing from a negative prior to a positive reading is the kind of reversal that draws more attention when it breaks a run of weakness in the goods sector than when it sits within noise; the distinction worth making is between a genuine turn in core capital goods demand, which feeds through to the business investment components of GDP, and transport or defence volatility, which this ex-transportation measure is designed to strip out. Revisions to the prior month matter as much as the print itself in this series, and the ISM manufacturing surveys that precede it generally set the market's prior. The follow-ons are the durable goods detail within the same report and whether regional Fed surveys corroborate any shift in the orders trend. As a standalone input this sits below payrolls, CPI and ISM in the repricing hierarchy for Treasuries and the dollar.