US Factory Orders (Jul MM) 0.9% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. -0.2%)

Headline beats of this size have historically faded quickly unless they force a revision to the durables story, and the release rarely moves Treasuries on its own; it feeds into GDP tracking rather than the policy debate. The inventories-to-shipments ratio is the part worth reading, since a build in stocks against flat shipments has in past cycles been the early marker of an inventory correction that later shows up in production cuts, while a drawdown alongside firm shipments reads as restocking demand. The prior month flipping from negative to positive is the more informative turn than the beat itself. Follow-ons are the ISM manufacturing detail and the industrial production print, which confirm or contradict the orders signal. As second-tier data, this is context for the cycle rather than a standalone catalyst.