US Factory Orders (Jul MM) 0.9% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. -0.2%)

• Inventories/Shipments Ratio: 1.47 months (prev. 47 months)

Factory orders is a lagging, largely derivative release: the durables component has already been published, so the fresh information is confined to nondurables, which track prices as much as volumes, and to the inventory detail. Headline beats of this size have historically faded quickly unless they force a revision to the durables story, and the release rarely moves Treasuries on its own; it feeds into GDP tracking rather than the policy debate. The inventories-to-shipments ratio is the part worth reading, since a build in stocks against flat shipments has in past cycles been the early marker of an inventory correction that later shows up in production cuts, while a drawdown alongside firm shipments reads as restocking demand. The prior month flipping from negative to positive is the more informative turn than the beat itself. Follow-ons are the ISM manufacturing detail and the industrial production print, which confirm or contradict the orders signal. As second-tier data, this is context for the cycle rather than a standalone catalyst.