US Fed Balance Sheet (Sep/16) 6.747T (Prev. 6.741T)

During active quantitative tightening or easing, the weekly change is watched mainly for confirmation that runoff or purchase programmes are proceeding as telegraphed, and deviations from the announced pace are what have moved the front end and SOMA-adjacent spreads rather than the level itself. The composition matters more than the total: shifts in the discount window, bank term funding facilities, or reserve balances carry more signal than aggregate portfolio size, and past episodes of facility usage ticking higher have been treated as early stress tells in money markets. A small week-on-week change of this kind is consistent with routine runoff or normal balance sheet drift, and has typically been a non-event for Treasuries and the dollar. The follow-ons worth noting are the reserve balances line and any movement in standing facility usage, which is where plumbing strain has historically shown up first.