US FX WRAP: Dollar gains as 2026 rate hike bets remain despite September calls easing following in-line CPI
USD was firmer following an in-line July CPI report. The initial reaction was lower, which held for a short time, before reversing to the upside as seen in the US 2yr yield. The report will keep debates over hikes in play, however coming shortly after a poor NFP report, September bets on a Fed hike have slightly pulled back given the bar has been raised for the next inflationary readings before the next FOMC to shift the Fed in a more hawkish direction. Money markets shifted dovish following the CPI release, pricing in a 60% chance of a 25bps Fed rate hike at the September meeting (prev. 50%), however, a 25bps hike is still fully priced by year end. Separately, ING notes recent reports of Trump weighing capital gains tax cuts to boost mid term performance would prove a mild dollar negative from a pro-risk perspective. DXY trades around highs of 100.02 against CPI-induced 99.613 lows.
G10FX generally traded lower against USD, led by CHF and NZD. Meanwhile, AUD relative outperformance remained as recent hawkish RBA Governor comments helped limit weakness. Elsewhere, EUR/USD was muted towards the unrevised Italy and Germany CPI figures; EUR/USD hit highs of 1.1563 on the US CPI report. The pair now trades around 1.1522.
The pattern here is a familiar one in cycles where the central bank is tightening rather than easing: an in-line inflation print following a soft labour report tends to produce a two-way reaction, with the initial read dovish on timing and the reversal driven by the level of the path, since the front end re-prices the near meeting while the year's full pricing stays intact. Wraps of this kind usually hinge on the distinction between a delay at the next meeting and a change in the terminal trajectory; a marginally higher bar for the subsequent data before the following decision shifts the burden onto the next releases rather than removing the move entirely. The dollar's failure to hold CPI-induced lows and the two-year yield leading the reversal fits the established sequence in which positioning, not the print itself, dictates the second move when the data land in line. Cross-sectionally, the laggards being the funding and high-beta currencies while AUD holds up on hawkish domestic commentary is the usual pattern when the driver is US rates rather than a broad risk shock, and single-governor remarks of that kind tend to limit rather than reverse a currency's move against a firm dollar. Political tax talk of the sort flagged has historically registered as a second-order pro-risk dollar negative and rarely drives the session against a rates-led tape. The follow-ons that matter are the remaining inflation and labour prints before the next meeting, and whether official commentary embraces or pushes back against the current pricing of the near meeting.