US FX WRAP: Dollar gains on Fed Chair Warsh's net hawkish Jackson Hole address

The pattern here is a familiar one: a Fed chair using the Jackson Hole platform to push back against easing expectations, with the dollar bid and the curve bear-flattening, front end repricing the policy path while the long end rallies on the credibility signal. Symposium addresses of this kind have historically mattered less for the speech itself than for whether subsequent data and speaker follow-through confirm the tone; where the chair has leaned against market pricing at this event and the data has not cooperated, the repricing has tended to fade within weeks. The case distinction worth drawing is between a delayed cut and a lower-for-longer path: the remarks as reported bear on timing, which is what two-year yields and front-end SOFR spreads trade, rather than on terminal. On the euro side, the French rating review is the conventional sovereign-risk tell: an affirmation leaves the OAT-Bund spread range-bound, while a negative outlook action is the kind of outcome that has in past episodes widened it and weighed on the single currency through the fiscal channel rather than the rate channel. Weekend budget demands from the Socialists are the follow-on that determines whether the political risk premium in OATs extends or retraces. The payrolls revision, a negative preliminary benchmark adjustment, fits the pattern of backward-looking data that rarely moves pricing on its own but feeds the softer-labour narrative that the chair's remarks were implicitly pushing against.