US FX WRAP: DXY makes new YTD highs; USD/JPY volatile trade sparks intervention speculation

USD was broadly firmer against peers as higher US yields continue to offer an attractive rate differential environment for the buck. The move has continued in the aftermath of surprisingly hawkish comments from Fed's Waller, accompanied by hotter-than-expected CPI readings. US data showed an uptick in initial claims, though still at benign levels, while existing home sales declined more than expected. Headlines centred on Nvidia and its CEO transition, with discussion emerging over whether it is an idiosyncratic or systemic risk. Despite NVDA falling 14% at its intraday lows, a strong recovery was seen, with competitors helping offset losses in the key AI player, allowing a rebound in stocks. Higher oil prices were another supportive factor for the USD, partially in response to US President Trump saying "We don't need a deal with Iran" and signalling that VP Vance will not take part in discussions with Iran, instead focusing on domestic matters.

There was plenty of Fed speak throughout the day. 2026 voter Hammack said rates need to move higher to reach a restrictive stance, 2027 voter Daly said her bias is that further tightening will be needed, and 2027 voter Goolsbee said the Fed should be mindful of signs the economy is overheating.

DXY now trades around fresh YTD highs of 103.24.

Outside of the US, newsflow was limited. A sharp move lower in USD/JPY sparked intervention and rate-check speculation. USD/JPY briefly climbed above 160 to highs of 160.05 before swiftly falling to lows of 159.29. Thereafter, USD/JPY recovered most of the downside into the time of writing. The move followed failed jawboning attempts from Japan's top currency diplomat Mimura. Meanwhile, BoJ's Asada struck his usual dovish tone, warning against premature rate hikes.