US Interest Rate Projection - Longer 3.2% (Prev. 3.1%)
An upward revision to the longer-run dot is a drift higher in the perceived neutral rate rather than a signal about the near-term path, and it is the kind of change that has historically been read through the back end of the curve and through term premium rather than through the front end.
FOMC STATEMENT COMPARE:
Fed hikes rates by 25bps to 3.75-4.00%, as expected; unanimous decision
US Interest Rate Projection - Longer 3.2% (Prev. 3.1%)
Ciena (CIEN) says revenue is expected to more than double by 2029 with potential upside driven by supply
JPMorgan's (JPM) Michele says Bessent has done his best to stabilise the long-end
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The longer-run projection has moved only gradually across past projection cycles, typically in small increments over successive updates, so a single-step revision of this size is incremental rather than a regime statement; what matters is whether it continues to grind higher in subsequent projection rounds, which would indicate the committee's estimate of neutral is still catching up to reality. The distinction worth drawing is between the median dot shifting and the underlying distribution shifting: a median move driven by a couple of participants crossing a rounding threshold carries less information than a broad-based migration of the cluster. Past episodes of rising longer-run dots have tended to coincide with a steeper curve and a firmer dollar at the margin, with the transmission running through the gap between the projected terminal and longer-run rates. The follow-ons are the accompanying statement language on the neutral rate, the Chair's press conference framing of whether this reflects r-star reassessment or merely composition, and how the median dot's position relative to the prior cycle's peak is characterised.
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