US MBA Mortgage Applications (Jul/17) 1.9%

Refinancing is the volatile leg, swinging sharply with small moves in rates, while the purchase index is the slower, more informative read on underlying demand. A positive print of this size sits within the series' normal weekly noise and carries little signal on its own. Historically the number gains relevance only in clusters, a sustained run of strength or weakness in purchase applications has tended to front-run the official housing data, since it leads new home sales and feeds into the starts pipeline. The distinction worth drawing is rate-driven refi noise versus genuine purchase momentum; the follow-ons are the composition breakdown and how the series trends into the next existing and new home sales prints.