US MBA Mortgage Market Index (Oct/09) 199.2 (Prev. 204.7)

The MBA weekly applications survey is among the noisiest high-frequency series on the US calendar, volatile around holidays and weather, and rarely a market mover on its own. Where it earns attention is less in the single-week print than in the split between purchase and refinancing components: the refi share tracks rates almost mechanically and tends to collapse quickly when mortgage rates back up, while the purchase index is the slower-moving read on underlying housing demand and leads pending home sales and builder sentiment with a short lag. Sequenced declines of this size in the composite index have historically said more about rate path than about credit or consumption, and are normally treated as confirmation of the direction in Treasury yields rather than as independent information. The follow-ons to watch alongside are the homebuilder survey, existing and pending home sales, and the Freddie Mac weekly rate series, which together determine whether a soft applications print is signal or noise. As a weekly release, its shelf life is usually one session at most.