US Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air (Aug) 1.6% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 0.2%)

The pattern with this release is that headline durable goods is noisy on aircraft and defence, which is precisely why the ex-air non-defence core carries the signal; the follow-through question is whether shipments, the component that actually enters GDP, confirm the orders strength or whether it sits in the backlog. Single-month upside surprises in this series have historically been prone to partial reversal in subsequent revisions, so the prior print and any revision to it matter as much as the headline beat. The usual sequence is a modest firming at the front and belly of the curve and support for the dollar, with the equity read split between cyclicals, which take it as demand confirmation, and the rate-sensitive duration trade, which takes it as one more argument against near-term easing. Worth noting is where this sits in the data calendar: the capex proxy gains weight when it corroborates or contradicts the survey capex intentions from the regional Fed and ISM readings that precede it.