US official said around 40 ships transited in and out of the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, carrying millions of barrels of oil, according to Axios

The distinction that matters is between a full closure, which has never been sustained in past episodes of Iran-related tension, and harassment or seizure incidents, which have raised war-risk insurance premia and rerouting costs without materially cutting flows. The crude market's established pattern in these episodes is to build a geopolitical premium on threat rhetoric and bleed it out as transit data confirm normal operations, with the premium concentrated in the prompt end of the curve rather than further out. The tells worth noting are tanker tracking data for confirmation, freight and insurance rates on Gulf loadings, and whether any actual interdiction incident follows. As an unattributed official comment via secondary reporting, the signal is reassurance rather than new information, and its weight depends on whether independent flow data corroborate it.