US Pending Home Sales (Aug YY) -4.7% (Prev. -2.2%)

A year-on-year print in a series this volatile is also partly a base-effects artefact, and the distinction worth drawing is between deterioration driven by mortgage-rate moves, which has been the dominant channel in recent housing cycles, and deterioration driven by supply constraints, which flatters prices while suppressing volumes. There is no consensus figure attached, so the read rests on the direction of travel from the prior print, which points to an acceleration of the decline rather than stabilisation. Second-tier housing data of this kind has rarely repriced front-end rates on its own; the pattern has been that it gains traction only when it corroborates the larger labour and inflation releases that drive the policy path. The follow-ons are the existing and new home sales prints and the mortgage applications series, which together indicate whether this is a rates-driven pullback or something broader.