US Preisdent Trump says you will see things happening very soon (regarding Iran); there has been historic flows of oil out of Hormuz in the last three days

Remarks of this kind sit in the established Hormuz playbook: a US assertion of maritime control paired with an allusion to imminent action has historically been used as signalling toward Tehran rather than as a statement of operational fact. The crude-market transmission runs through freight, insurance and prompt spreads rather than headline flat price: in past Strait scares the first movers have been war-risk premia and tanker rates, with front-month timespreads firming only when flows are actually interrupted. The claim of continued oil passage through the Strait is itself the key detail; episodes where Hormuz remained open have tended to see risk premia bleed out over subsequent sessions, whereas any actual curtailment of loadings is what has historically driven sustained repricing. Worth distinguishing the two cases embedded here: rhetoric with unimpeded flows, which has typically faded, versus rhetoric followed by kinetic action, which has not. Follow-ons are confirmation of tanker traffic data, any Iranian response through official channels, and whether other regional producers adjust export scheduling.