US Presdient Trump says Iran wants to make a deal and hopefully we're more at the end of the Iran war

Verbal de-escalation from a principal in an active conflict follows a familiar template: markets have historically faded solo headline optimism from either side until it is corroborated by the counterparty, by intermediaries, or by tangible steps such as a ceasefire framework or restored shipping flows. The transmission channel here is crude and its associated risk premium: past episodes of this kind have seen the geopolitical bid in oil unwind in stages, first on talk of talks, then more durably on confirmed de-escalation, with freight and insurance costs lagging the headline. The tell that has separated durable reversals from head-fakes is whether Tehran echoes the framing or contradicts it, and whether kinetic activity actually pauses in the interim. Secondary channels are the haven complex (JPY, gold, front-end rates) and the dollar, which in past Middle East de-escalations has tended to soften as the safety bid unwinds. Worth watching is any OPEC or supply-side readjustment if the premium that conflict built into prompt spreads begins to bleed out. As rhetoric rather than action, this is the weakest rung of the escalation ladder and has been prone to reversal on the next strike or denial.