US President Trump confirms US is talking to the Houthis, and they want a deal; says we'll see on whether to annihilate Iran

Direct presidential confirmation of talks with the Houthis fits a familiar pattern in which back-channel or acknowledged contact with non-state actors precedes any formal de-escalation, and where the first market read has historically run through shipping risk: Red Sea transit insurance, freight rates and the crude risk premium tend to reprice on the headline before any operational change on the water. The distinction that matters here is between a ceasefire-style arrangement covering Houthi attacks on shipping and any broader framework touching Iran, since the former affects a logistics premium while the latter goes to supply itself and to sanctions risk on Iranian barrels. The conditional language on Iran is of the kind that has on previous occasions functioned as negotiating pressure rather than intent, but it keeps the tail priced in oil and gold even when the base case softens. Past episodes of simultaneous overture and threat have tended to produce whippy, headline-driven sessions in crude and haven FX rather than a sustained trend, with the durable moves coming only on verified changes in flows or strikes. The follow-ons worth watching are confirmation from the Houthi side, any statement from intermediaries who have carried these channels before, and whether tanker traffic and insurance quotes actually shift, which is the tell that distinguishes rhetoric from de-escalation.