US President Trump is meeting with his national security team Monday to discuss the way forward in the Iran war, including possibly resuming military action, after negotiations with the country deadlocked on Sunday, three US officials said via Axios

  • US officials say Trump wants a deal to end the war, but Iran's rejection of many of his demands and refusal to make meaningful concessions on its nuclear program puts the military option back on the table.

Meeting

  • Vice President Vance, White House envoy Steve Witkoff, Secretary of State Rubio, Secretary of Defense Hegseth, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine, CIA director John Ratcliffe and other senior officials are expected to participate in the Iran meeting on Monday, U.S. officials say.

Military action

  • "Two U.S. officials said Trump is leaning toward taking some form of military action against Iran to increase pressure on the regime and force concessions on its nuclear program." 
  • "He will tune them up a bit," one U.S. official said.
  • "I think we all know where this is going," a second U.S. official said.

Timing

  • Trump is expected to leave for China on Wednesday and return Friday. Two officials said they don't think Trump would order military action against Iran before he returns from China. 

Options

  • One option Trump is considering is resuming "Project Freedom," the U.S. operation to guide ships through the Strait of Hormuz, which was suspended last week.
  • Another option is to resume the bombing campaign and strike the 25% of targets the U.S. military identified but hasn't hit yet.
  • The Israeli government wants Trump to order a special forces operation to secure Iran's enriched uranium stockpile. Israeli officials say Trump is hesitant to order such an operation because it is highly risky.
Context

President Trump's planned meeting with his national security team highlights the escalating tensions with Iran, particularly following stalled negotiations on its nuclear program. A potential shift to military action could increase volatility in oil and commodity markets, especially given the sensitive geopolitical landscape in the region. Traders should watch for implications on currency movements, energy prices, and overall risk sentiment depending on the outcomes of these deliberations.

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