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US President Trump says last American forces are leaving Iraq

Announcements of completed troop withdrawals from Middle East theatres have historically functioned as staged political events rather than discrete market shocks; the typical sequence is declaration, staged drawdown, formal handover of bases, and then a test of local security capacity.

Newsquawk StaffPublished On the live feed at , 20 minutes before this page
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US President Trump says last American forces are leaving Iraq

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  • "Today, I am pleased to announce, that the last American Forces are leaving Iraq! It has been a long time, with very bad decision-making that got us involved in this quagmire in the first place, but soon, that will be part of History. This is a Great Day for America and, importantly, we leave with Iraq having a wonderful new Prime Minister, Ali al-Zaidi, somebody I supported from the beginning and fully endorsed. He won an Election that he was not expected to win, and did so, in a landslide! Launched in 2003 under the presidency of George W. Bush, and continued under the Administration of Barack Hussein Obama in 2014, and Sleepy Joe Biden, Operation Inherent Resolve ends in 2026 under the leadership of President Donald J. Trump. This Day is a victory for the United States, a victory for Iraq, and a decisive victory over ISIS, which has been completely decimated by the Trump Administration, First Term, along with other very bad and dangerous players. Unlike Afghanistan, where much Military Equipment and everything else was left behind, and 13 Warriors lie dead, with many badly wounded, this orderly departure of Coalition forces and equipment from Erbil Air Base marks the end of a very expensive excursion into Hell. I set a clear mission, gave our Commanders the tools to finish it, and refused to let a temporary presence become a permanent one. I had a choice to stay or to leave, and felt, without question, that it was time for America to go home! Prime Minister al-Zaidi, is outstanding, and he will hopefully be able to handle things very well. We came to fight a caliphate. There is no longer a caliphate. We are going home! President DONALD J. TRUMP"
Context

The market-relevant precedent distinction is between orderly exits with a stable successor security structure and those followed by insurgent reconstitution, the latter pattern being the one that has historically re-priced regional risk premia, chiefly through Iraqi crude supply assumptions and the insurance and freight components of Gulf energy logistics rather than through global risk sentiment. The Afghanistan comparison invoked in the statement itself flags the downside template markets have seen before: a rapid deterioration in state control after departure, which in that episode produced little lasting energy-market effect because the theatre carried no material crude exposure, whereas Iraq sits inside the OPEC core and its output stability feeds directly into Brent and WTI curve pricing. What has mattered on prior occasions is the counterfactual risk of a security vacuum near producing infrastructure in the south, where a large share of exports concentrates, rather than the northern base cited in the statement. Follow-ons worth observing are residual-force language from coalition partners, any change in force protection status at remaining facilities, and whether regional actors treat the departure as an opening for expanded influence inside Iraq, since that has been the established pattern following prior drawdowns. As a political announcement rather than an operational event, the immediate transmission is likely confined to headline desks; sustained effects in crude or Gulf risk premia have historically required confirmation on the security side.

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