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US President Trump says that Iran war has a good chance of ending, PBS reports; he feels US is closing in on a deal with Iran

President Trump's remarks suggest a potential thaw in relations with Iran, indicating that a deal may be approaching.

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Newsquawk Daily Economic Releases - 7th May 2026

"The White House received positive feedback from Pakistani mediators on Tuesday that the Iranians were progressing toward a compromise" CNN's Treene reports citing officials

US President Trump says that Iran war has a good chance of ending, PBS reports; he feels US is closing in on a deal with Iran

Japan is reportedly to purchase 20mln barrels of UAE oil to bypass the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, Nikkei reports

"Members of the Security Council see the US-Gulf draft resolution as similar to the one opposed by Russia and China", Al Jazeera reports citing diplomatic sources

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Timeline:

  • Unlikely to send US Envoy Witkoff and Kushner for talks.
  • Possible that an Iran deal can be reached before the China visit.  (14-15 May 2026)

Sentiment:

  • Felt a deal was near before, will see what happens.
  • Oil may come down quickly after the war, or not, nobody knows.
  • Thinks this [Iran war] has a very good chance of ending; will go back to bombing if not.

Details on the deal:

  • Iran deal includes not using underground facilities.
  • Iran uranium would go to the US under the deal.
  • If no Iran deal is reached, then we go back to old ways.
  • If we make a deal, we will lighten up on sanctions. 

Visit to China:

  • May not need to discuss Iran much with President Xi, if the war ends.
Context

This development could impact oil prices significantly, with traders watching for whether the cessation of conflict leads to a decline in WTI and Brent prices. The sentiment around a possible deal may also influence risk appetite across equities and currencies, particularly for the USD and related currencies in the region.

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