US President Trump says that Iran war has a good chance of ending, PBS reports; he feels US is closing in on a deal with Iran

Timeline:

  • Unlikely to send US Envoy Witkoff and Kushner for talks.
  • Possible that an Iran deal can be reached before the China visit.  (14-15 May 2026)

Sentiment:

  • Felt a deal was near before, will see what happens.
  • Oil may come down quickly after the war, or not, nobody knows.
  • Thinks this [Iran war] has a very good chance of ending; will go back to bombing if not.

Details on the deal:

  • Iran deal includes not using underground facilities.
  • Iran uranium would go to the US under the deal.
  • If no Iran deal is reached, then we go back to old ways.
  • If we make a deal, we will lighten up on sanctions. 

Visit to China:

  • May not need to discuss Iran much with President Xi, if the war ends.
Context

President Trump's remarks suggest a potential thaw in relations with Iran, indicating that a deal may be approaching. This development could impact oil prices significantly, with traders watching for whether the cessation of conflict leads to a decline in WTI and Brent prices. The sentiment around a possible deal may also influence risk appetite across equities and currencies, particularly for the USD and related currencies in the region.

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