US President Trump says the US is currently striking Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz

Past episodes of direct military action near the strait have followed a recognisable sequence: an initial bid in crude, tanker rates, and war-risk insurance premia, with the persistence of the move hinging on whether shipping actually halts or reroutes rather than on the strike itself. The key distinction is between strikes on military infrastructure, which prior episodes suggest crude tends to fade if flows continue, and any interference with tanker traffic or mining of the waterway, which is the scenario that has historically sustained a premium. Iranian retaliation is the established pattern in this kind of exchange, and prior form has run through proxies, missile responses, and harassment of shipping rather than closure of the strait, which Iran has threatened repeatedly but never executed. Worth watching are statements from Tehran, tanker tracking and insurance market signals, any OPEC or US strategic reserve response, and whether Gulf producers or the US move to escort shipping. Safe-haven bid in gold, Treasuries, and the dollar alongside an equity fade is the standard first reaction in episodes of this kind; the durability of that reaction has historically been a function of follow-through, not the headline.