US President Trump says thinks the war with Iran will end pretty soon; Strait of Hormuz is sort of opened right now

• Need more munitions all the time. On supply, we have unlimited supply; we're in great shape.

Verbal de-escalation signals of this kind have historically acted as the first stage in unwinding a geopolitical risk premium, with crude tending to lead the move lower and safe-haven FX and gold following, though the pattern has repeatedly been two steps forward and one back until something verifiable on the ground confirms it. The operative distinction here is between rhetoric about the war ending and the physical status of Hormuz: the remark that the strait is 'sort of opened' is the tradable variable, since the premium in Brent and WTI is ultimately a freight, insurance and shipping-flow story rather than a headline story. In past episodes of this kind, tanker traffic data, war-risk insurance rates and any naval escort or clearance arrangements have been the tells that separate a durable de-escalation from a pause. The munitions comment cuts the other way and is consistent with prior form: officials in active conflicts have routinely paired talk of imminent resolution with assertions of readiness to sustain operations, which desks have tended to read as negotiating posture rather than contradiction. Follow-ons worth noting are confirmation from the other side, any ceasefire framework, and whether energy infrastructure in the region resumes normal operations, since it is the physical flows and not the tone that retire the premium.