US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +1.0mln (exp. -1.1mln), Gasoline +3.0mln (exp. -0.5mln), Distillate -0.3mln (exp. +0.0mln), Cushing +0.2mln

The private survey build across crude and, more pointedly, gasoline is the kind of print that sets up the official government report the following morning; the private release has historically been treated as a directional guide rather than a verdict, with the spread between the two datasets itself a recurring source of noise and occasional sharp re-pricing when they diverge. The distinction that matters is between the headline crude build and the product picture: a large gasoline build against an expected draw points to soft implied demand or heavy refinery runs, and product-led weakness has tended to weigh on cracks and the front of the curve more durably than a crude-only surprise. Cushing, essentially flat, removes the storage-constraint angle that has amplified moves at the delivery point in past episodes. The established sequence is an initial knee-jerk in WTI on the headline, then a fade or extension depending on how the official figures confirm, with runs, utilisation and implied demand the lines that determine whether the build reads as supply-driven or demand-driven. Confirmation risk cuts both ways, and the survey's track record on direction is better than on magnitude.