US Retail Sales YoY (Aug) 6% (prev. 5%)

The distinction that has historically mattered for the rates reaction is nominal versus real: a strong headline built on goods inflation has moved the curve far less durably than one reflecting volume, and the control group component, which feeds GDP, has carried more weight with desks than the aggregate. The sequence in past episodes of resilient consumption prints has been a front-end repricing against near-term easing expectations, with follow-through dependent on whether income and labour data corroborate. Worth noting alongside are the revisions to the prior month and the composition across categories, which have frequently reshaped the initial read. The next consumption and inflation releases are the tells for whether this reflects genuine demand momentum or seasonal and price noise.