US strikes on Iran targets on Tuesday included two Iranian government tankers under a new 'tanker for tanker' approved by US President Trump to deter Iranian attacks on tankers, according to Axios

A tit-for-tat tanker policy marks a shift from strikes on military or nuclear infrastructure to direct targeting of Iranian commercial shipping, a pattern with clear precedent in past Gulf tanker-war episodes, where each side's vessels became leverage and the confrontation ran through freight rates, war-risk insurance premia and transit behaviour in the Strait of Hormuz rather than through immediate supply loss. The 'tanker for tanker' framing implies a retaliatory logic that caps escalation only as long as both sides observe the exchange ratio; historically the risk in such sequences is miscalculation or a casualty event that breaks the symmetry. The transmission channel to watch first is not crude output but shipping: Hormuz transit volumes, insurance costs on Gulf loadings, and any rerouting or flag-switching by Iranian-linked tonnage. Iranian responses in past episodes have tended to come through proxies, harassment of commercial vessels, or seizures rather than direct confrontation with US forces. The follow-ons are whether tanker traffic through the strait slows, whether freight and premia reprice, and whether the policy extends beyond two vessels into a sustained campaign.