US to sell USD 95bln 13-week bills and USD 82bln 26-week bills on October 5th; to sell USD 95bln of 6-week bills on October 6th; all to settle on October 8th

Weekly bill auction sizes are announced as a matter of routine and are rarely market-moving in themselves; the information content lies in the trend of issuance rather than any single slate. What has mattered historically is the direction of the bill share within overall supply: sustained increases in bill sizes raise net front-end supply, put upward pressure on bill rates relative to OIS, and drain reserves, while reductions signal the reverse or a rebuilding of the Treasury cash balance. Episodes of heavy bill reliance have at times flattened the bill curve and tightened repo conditions at quarter and year-end turns, whereas periods of bill paydowns have pushed cash into the RRP and softened front-end rates. The settlement date is the operative detail, since settlement concentrates the reserve impact and can interact with coupon settlements falling the same day. Worth noting is whether these sizes represent a step up or down from recent weeks of the same tenors, and any accompanying cash management bill announcements, which are the usual tell of near-term financing pressure around debt limit or seasonal tax dates.