US Treasury Holdings (July, USD): Japan 1.104tln (prev. 1.117tln), China 618bln (prev. 633bln), UK 998bln (prev. 940bln).

TIC flows are the longest-running scorecard on foreign official demand for Treasuries, and the familiar caveats apply: the data lag by well over a month, custody centres distort attribution, and the UK line in particular functions partly as a clearing hub rather than a read on British appetite, so a jump there often masks demand routed through London from elsewhere. The split that matters is between the two largest official holders trimming and the UK custody line building, a pattern that in past episodes has been read as reserve managers diversifying while private or intermediary flows pick up the slack. Historically, markets have reacted less to the level changes than to the trend: sustained, multi-month declines by the largest holders have tended to feed term-premium and auction-tail narratives, while one-month moves are usually faded. The distinguishing tell is whether reductions coincide with FX intervention episodes, since reserve funding sales look different from discretionary reallocation. The follow-ons are the next few prints for confirmation of trend, auction foreign bid metrics as the higher-frequency cross-check, and any shift in the bill-versus-coupon composition of the holdings.