US Treasury says it expects to borrow USD 574bln in Q1 (prev. 578bln, exp. 550bln), sees end cash balance of USD 850bln; to borrow USD 109bln in Q2, sees end cash balance of USD 900bln

• During the October–December 2025 quarter, Treasury borrowed USD 550bln in privately-held net marketable debt and ended the quarter with a cash balance of USD 873bln.
  • In November 2025, Treasury estimated borrowing of USD 569bln and assumed an end-of-December cash balance of USD 850bln.
  • The USD 20bln in lower privately-held net marketable borrowing resulted primarily from higher net cash flows, partially offset by the higher-than-assumed end-of-quarter cash balance.  Excluding the higher-than-assumed end-of-quarter cash balance, actual borrowing was $42 billion lower than announced in November.
• Additional financing details relating to Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding will be released at 8:30 a.m. on Wednesday, February 4, 2026.

The US Treasury's updated borrowing projections for Q1 and Q2 are slightly above previous expectations, suggesting continued demand for financing despite a reduction from earlier estimates. This influx could impact bond yields and alter market perceptions of inflation risk as the Treasury's cash balances indicate a stable liquidity position. Moreover, the upcoming quarterly refunding details will be crucial for gauging future market sentiment.