US Treasury says it expects to borrow USD 574bln in Q1 (prev. 578bln, exp. 550bln), sees end cash balance of USD 850bln; to borrow USD 109bln in Q2, sees end cash balance of USD 900bln
The US Treasury's updated borrowing projections for Q1 and Q2 are slightly above previous expectations, suggesting continued demand for financing despite a reduction from earlier estimates.
TREASURY WRAP: T-NOTE FUTURES (H6) SETTLE 7+ TICKS LOWER AT 111-19
US President Trump says working hard with Speaker Johnson to get the current funding deal, which passed in the Senate last week, through the House and to my desk, where I will sign it into law, immediately
US Treasury says it expects to borrow USD 574bln in Q1 (prev. 578bln, exp. 550bln), sees end cash balance of USD 850bln; to borrow USD 109bln in Q2, sees end cash balance of USD 900bln
CRUDE WRAP: WTI (H6) SETTLES USD 3.07 LOWER AT 62.14/BBL; BRENT (J6) SETTLES USD 3.02 LOWER AT 66.30/BBL
Israeli officials estimate that US President Trump will launch an attack on Iran, Al Hadath reports; Negotiations with Iran are expected to reach an impasse
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- During the October–December 2025 quarter, Treasury borrowed USD 550bln in privately-held net marketable debt and ended the quarter with a cash balance of USD 873bln.
- In November 2025, Treasury estimated borrowing of USD 569bln and assumed an end-of-December cash balance of USD 850bln.
- The USD 20bln in lower privately-held net marketable borrowing resulted primarily from higher net cash flows, partially offset by the higher-than-assumed end-of-quarter cash balance. Excluding the higher-than-assumed end-of-quarter cash balance, actual borrowing was $42 billion lower than announced in November.
- Additional financing details relating to Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding will be released at 8:30 a.m. on Wednesday, February 4, 2026.
This influx could impact bond yields and alter market perceptions of inflation risk as the Treasury's cash balances indicate a stable liquidity position. Moreover, the upcoming quarterly refunding details will be crucial for gauging future market sentiment.
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