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US Treasury Secretary Bessent says Abenomics was reflationary and that Japan can sit back and enjoy

Subscribers had this at 13:38. Published here 13:58.

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Context

Remarks from a US Treasury Secretary on another economy's policy mix sit in the long tradition of Washington leaning, gently or otherwise, on the exchange rate dimension of a trading partner's reflation. Publicly blessing a reflationary stance is, on past form, a softer way of tolerating yen weakness than the older currency-manipulation framing, and episodes of this kind have tended to matter less for what they say than for whether they signal accommodation ahead of bilateral trade or currency discussions. The operative question is whether the comment reflects a coordinated view with Japanese counterparts, who have historically been sensitive to any perception that yen direction is being negotiated rather than domestically set. The distinction worth drawing is between endorsing reflation itself, which is cheap talk, and endorsing the currency weakness that accompanies it, which is what the FX market has historically traded on. Follow-ons are any response from Japanese officials and whether the remark recurs in more formal settings, since repetition is what converts a passing comment into a policy signal. As a one-off, the read is directional and soft.

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