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US Treasury Secretary Bessent says US is not attacking Iran's energy infrastructure; we have allowed Iran oil to continue out of the Gulf, via Fox Business Interview; US may unsanction Iranian oil on the water in the coming days

Importance
Level 1
  • Says Strait of Hormuz is a temporary choke point.
  • Iranian barrels are about 140mln.
  • Will use Iran oil to keep prices down.
  • US could do another SPR release to keep prices down. 
  • US may do a unilateral SPR release. 
  • Treasury is NOT intervening in the futures market.
  • Treasury is intervening in markets by creating excess supply with oil that is on the water.
  • Not going to do financial market oil intervention. 
  • Know where Iran leaders bank accounts are.
  • Starting to see defections in Iran.
  • Will see if Kharg Islands eventually becomes a US asset. 
  • In time, oil prices will be lower than before February 28th.

US

  • Economy is strong, consumer is strong. US growth can be above 3% this year.
  • Fed investigation is not Trump's decision, it is Pirro's. 
  • Warsh meeting on Hill is going very well. 
  • There will be a Warsh confirmation hearing. 
  • What will be held up is the senate vote on Warsh. 
  • It is out of historic norms if Powell stays on as governor. 

Japan

  • US President Trump has an excellent relationship with Japanese PM.
  • Japan Navy is one of the three great world navies, it has some of the best minesweeps.
  • Would not expect Japan to join the bombing campaign on Iran.
  • Would expect Japan to be interested in securing oil supplies from Gulf.
  • Think Japan is going to supply the market with oil reserves.

China

  • Postponed China trip to stay in US during Iran war; the delay was about logistics, not about the Hormuz.
  • China was funding the leading sponsor of global terrorism in buying oil from Iran.
  • When the US unsanctions Iran oil, it can go to places ex-China.

Cuba

  • It will be a slow motion regime change in Cuba.
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