Headlines

US Treasury sells USD 13bln of 20-year bonds; tails 0.9bps

Newsquawk Staff ·

  • High Yield: 5.469% (prev. 5.420%, six-auction avg. 5.120%); WI: 5.460%
  • Tail: 0.9bps (prev. 2.0bps, six-auction avg. 0.2bps)
  • Bid-to-Cover: 2.73x (prev. 2.57x, six-auction avg. 2.62x)
  • Dealers: 10.3% (prev. 16.9%, six-auction avg. 11.9%)
  • Directs: 31.6% (prev. 30.7%, six-auction avg. 22.9%)
  • Indirects: 58.2% (prev. 52.5%, six-auction avg. 65.2%)

What it means

A tail at a 20-year sale is the familiar pattern for this tenor: the bond sits in the least liquid part of the coupon curve, chronically cheap to adjacent maturities, and its auctions have a long history of sloppy results even when the headline demand metrics look respectable. Here the mix is internally inconsistent in the usual instructive way: a firm bid-to-cover and a light dealer takedown alongside a below-average indirect share and a heavy direct share points to domestic real-money and retail-type demand doing the work while foreign sponsorship was soft, and the tail suggests pricing had to do more than the WI concession implied. Reopenings and new issues in this tenor have tended to trade through stop-throughs less cleanly than the belly or the long bond, so a sub-1bp tail is unremarkable for the sector even if it registers as weak on the day. The follow-ons that matter in past episodes of this kind are the subsequent long-bond sale in the same refunding sequence, whether the 10s20s and 20s30s slope concessions persist into the secondary session, and dealer positioning given the low primary-dealer award. As a single data point it says more about sponsorship of the 20-year point than about demand for duration generally.

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