US Treasury to sell USD 13bln of 20-year bonds on Oct 21st, to settle Oct 22nd; To sell USD 26bln of 5-year TIPS on Oct 22nd, to settle October 30th

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US Treasury to sell USD 13bln of 20-year bonds on Oct 21st, to settle Oct 22nd; To sell USD 26bln of 5-year TIPS on Oct 22nd, to settle October 30th

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Bills (to settle Oct 22nd)

  • US to sell USD 95bln of 13-week bills and USD 82bln of 26-week bills on Oct 19th.
  • US to sell USD 95bln of 6-week bills on Oct 20th

Context

A standard refunding-week announcement of the kind Treasury publishes on its regular cycle, and on its own these notices rarely move the market: the information content is in deviations from prior sizes, not in the schedule itself. The 20-year is the segment that has historically carried the weakest sponsorship of the coupon curve and the largest tails relative to neighbouring tenors, so its auction is the one where concession-building in the days before has tended to be most visible in the belly-to-long-end spread. The 5-year TIPS reopening lands in the same week, and the two together set up a modest duration-and-breakeven supply test; how breakevens trade into the TIPS print relative to nominals is the usual tell on real-rate demand. The bill sizes in the body are routine cash-management and rollover issuance whose signalling value lies in cumulative bill share of outstanding debt rather than in any single week's takedown. Worth noting next are the when-issued levels into each stop, the tail versus the 1pm level, and indirect bidder share, which is the cleanest read on foreign and real-money appetite. Nothing in the announcement itself reprices anything; the auctions do that.

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