US VP Vance tells NY Post that the conflict with Iran is expected to shift into a "much different phase" in the coming months

Here the stated shift, from degrading Iran's nuclear and conventional capabilities to preventing reconstruction, implies a lower tempo of large-scale strikes but an open-ended containment posture, a configuration that in past episodes of this kind has kept risk premia elevated for longer than headline de-escalation would suggest. The transmission channel runs through the Strait of Hormuz: transit volumes of 11 commercial vessels in 24 hours against a pre-conflict average of 130 mean crude and product flows remain severely impaired, and it is freight rates, war-risk insurance premia, and the Brent-Dubai spread rather than diplomatic language that carry the information. Naval escort missions for tankers have historically restored shipping confidence only gradually and unevenly, with owners and underwriters repricing after demonstrated safe passage over weeks, not on the announcement. Sanctions on Iranian financial entities are the slower lever and have tended to persist well past any ceasefire, capping how quickly Iranian barrels return to market even in a durable calm. What is worth watching is the daily tanker transit count, insurance quotes on Gulf loadings, and whether escorted convoys give way to independent commercial transit, as those are the tells that have marked genuine phase shifts in comparable standoffs.