US Weekly Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -2.1mln, Gasoline -1.4mln, Distillate +0.5mln

The private survey ahead of the official government data has long functioned as the week's first read on US balances, and the established pattern is that it moves the front of the crude curve only modestly on its own, with the market historically positioning around it rather than fully committing until the official figures confirm or contradict. The channel is the surprise relative to expectations and, as here, the composition of the draw: a headline crude draw alongside a gasoline draw reads as genuine product-demand support and tends to lean bullish, while a distillate build running in the other direction muddies the signal and has on past occasions capped the crude reaction, since middle-distillate tightness is often the more structurally watched leg. Divergences between this survey and the official release are common, and the reliable tell through the week has been how far the official print tracks or refutes the private numbers, with confirmation tending to extend the move and contradiction to unwind it. The distinction worth drawing is between draws driven by refinery runs and imports, which are operational noise, and draws driven by product demand, which carry through into cracks and spreads. The follow-ons are the official inventory data, refinery utilisation, and the implied demand lines.